As harbingers go, July 2023 certainly packed a wallop. Pegged as the hottest month ever recorded in history by global climate scientists, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in some places, it is unfortunately not likely to be an anomaly and worse yet, will surely be surpassed in the future. (As an aside, last year was said to be the warmest since global records began to be kept in 1850, by a wide margin.) For all the movements, protests, and campaigns, particularly in the very recent past, human action, the biggest contributor to climate change, has not yet shifted in a way that signals imminent relief.
While world leaders continue to dither on fossil fuels, the largest contributors to global climate change, and kid themselves that selling and buying carbon credits can really cancel out the harm done by the drilling, mining and manufacturing of greedy corporations, the scales are steadily dipping against us. For instance, according to the World Health Organisation, by the 2030s at least 250,000 more people could die each year from climate change related impacts on diseases and coastal flooding. Meanwhile, the World Bank projects that 21 million people could die by 2050 owing to the effect of a warmer climate. The causes? Extreme heat, stunting, diarrhoea, malaria, and dengue fever. Furthermore, this month’s edition of the medical journal The Lancet has referred to the geographical spread of Lyme disease, rickettsiosis—a type of spotted fever, and Rocky Mountain spotted fever, all of which are spread by animal ticks.
The World Bank has not included Covid-19 or any similar pandemic in its line-up, although either or both are likely possible. The former has not been eradicated. In spite of wishful thinking by some, Covid-19 remains a clear and present threat to good health and to life, particularly with new strains popping up at random. The latter has long been raised by public health practitioners with the caveat that the costly lessons of the last three years should see countries and governments better prepared. Unfortunately, too many places have seen a return to the status quo ante, which means there will be a mad scramble when the next crisis occurs.
The typical armchair experts will be quick to dub these warnings as anti-development and anti-progress. No doubt, they can find or already have their hands on material that seeks to debunk the arguments against fossil fuels. What they will be unable to explain away, however, is the obvious, unrelenting heating of the earth. And what excuse can they dredge up to shed light on why in recent years there have been increasing cases of dengue fever in temperate climes like Europe and North America?
Meanwhile, in addition to the zoonoses and vector-borne diseases referred to above, climate change will wreak havoc on food security, undoing any gains made by way of extreme weather events. We have already seen the dire effects of heatwaves, storms and floods on farming, more of the same will simply amplify the situation. As always, the vulnerable and disadvantaged will bear the brunt of whatever catastrophe results. To be sure, women and children will face the worst of it.
There’s more. It is well known that extreme weather disasters tend to give rise to anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress. In instances where people have lost their livelihoods or seen their long-term economic stability threatened, there has been a tendency to resort to high-risk coping behaviours, such as alcohol and or drug abuse. In addition, a recent study linked the climate crisis to an increase in suicide by individuals already dealing with mental health issues. But more than that, the Mental Health and our Changing Climate: Children and Youth Report 2023 stated that when climate change is added to the other factors that already concern children, including but not limited to, racism, poverty, abuse, their parents’ health, and peer pressure, it could potentially derail their mental health. Myriad scientific papers reported on increased rates of anxiety, depression, trauma, and post-traumatic stress disorder in the short term. And in the absence of proper intervention, long-term mental health challenges. While this particular report only focused on the United States, it is worthy of global attention; as the local saying goes, “Hint to Beniba mek Quashiba tek notice”. But perhaps not in our case, since it appears that Quashiba has been struck blind and deaf having been immersed in oil.
As the world hurtles rather than crawls towards heating the earth to the hoped maximum of 1.5C by 2100 as stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement, our hotter Julys, and likely Augusts and Septembers going forward, will continue to warn us that we have gone too far. How we respond will determine if we are too far gone.
