Enduring climate-related threats that continue to bedevil CARICOM member states, Barbados would appear to have had little, if any, negative impact on its assessment of the likely fortunes of its economy, going forward. Once again, this year, the country’s Central Bank is placing its faith in Barbados’ internationally renowned tourism sector to help the country’s economy retain a resilience which it has traditionally shown. The prognosis for the country’s economy this year, the Central Bank assessment says, is “cautiously optimistic”, the economy having “successfully weathered challenges posed by the global pandemic” and “recovered to be larger than its pre-COVID size in both nominal and real terms.”
The basis for the Bank’s decidedly upbeat prognosis would very much appear to be centered around what the report says has been an anticipated “return to pre-pandemic level tourist arrivals by the end of the year”. This, it says, has been signaled by “early forward bookings” that point to “renewed interest from travelers in visiting Barbados” as reflected in “continuous growth in seating capacity”, a function of airlines’ “growing confidence and willingness to meet the demand for travel” between Barbados and the rest of the world. The report also points to the global sense of Barbados’ role as an international visitor attraction by pointing to the ICC’s decision to name the island as the host for the forthcoming World Cup matches. Here, the Central Bank appears to be confident that the ‘gifting’ of the World Cup to Barbados is likely to “garner significant interest” in the destination during the summer months and to create “increased visitor demand for local goods and services” which, the report says, “should contribute to broader economic growth through the associated activity in wholesale and retail, transportation, construction, and other ancillary sectors.”
All this, however, does not entice the country’s Central Bank into viewing the Barbados economy through enduringly rose-tinted spectacles. It takes the precaution of noting that despite its upbeat prognosis, Barbados’ growth outlook “remains uncertain and is subject to several risks” some of which are the “projected global economic slowdown and potential geopolitical conflicts” which it says are “downside risks” to the otherwise upbeat 2024 forecast. The Bank’s overall assessment is that, as in previous years, the country’s tourism sector is likely to be a critical economic trump card though it emphasizes that it can only effectively perform that role if it remains “agile, agile, adapting to changing trends, and encouraging collaboration,” an option that will enable the country’s tourism sector to “not only recover but also flourish as a top global performer.”
