Dear Editor,
Over the last month I have seen dozens of reports from Guyana and received several social media posts forwarded to me about Guyana’s immense wealth, as measured by independent external agencies. Wonderful news. But unfortunately, some of it seems to be misunderstood or misconstrued. Sometimes I even detect a note of mischief, as if to deliberately create false expectations, to generate frustration and to incite social unrest or worse. For instance, the “highest rate of growth in the world in Guyana’s per capita GDP” is erroneously translated to the “highest per capita GDP in the world”, making Guyanese the “richest people in the world”. This sets up a false narrative that can incite resentment in those who feel that they are not receiving their share of the riches.
Another case of misunderstanding is the GDP itself. GDP is the value of goods and services produced “in” a country. I have heard it said that Guyana is operating in a 22 billion US dollar economy. That’s huge. But is that number tangibly so? Editor, for 2024, about 17 billion US dollars of that amount will be generated offshore, and just one-seventh of it, that is 14.5%, or around 2.5 billion US dollars will be received as income to Guyana. The other 14.5 billion US dollars, while generated in Guyana’s offshore exclusive economic zone, will not enter Guyana’s treasury because it goes to Exxon, Hess and CNOOC. Almost as if there is another entity out there that I have satirically named Exxoyana. It is, of course, technically correct to attribute Exxoyana’s take to Guyana, but it skews the real world economic impact to the point of gross distortion, thus creating another realm of false expectations. Other countries, such as Ireland and Singapore which have huge foreign ownerships in their national production, in their case, international financial transactions, adjust their inflated GDP numbers by subtracting the portion attributable to foreign ownership. They arrive at a more realistic number which they call their Gross National Income. I believe that such a calculation, as I have done above, albeit on a rough basis, would help to keep our people better attuned to the true state of Guyana’s wealth.
I do understand the rationale for using the GDP in the “National Debt to GDP ratio” to justify the proposed increase in government borrowing. Guyana’s GDP is so much higher than its GNI that it makes the National Debt to GDP ratio look small and therefore more enticing to lenders but there is no real need for that. Guyana’s collateral position for borrowing is so strong that a National Debt to Gross National Income ratio is sturdy enough to bear the proposed increased debt load. More importantly, it keeps the focus on the tangible economy.
Editor, I think that Guyana is now on the path to realizing the potential that I, as a teenager at Independence in 1966, wrote about in “What I Expect of Independence” in the Independence edition of “Kaie”, the journal of the National History and Arts Council. Immense good luck, meaningful numbers and realistic expectations are vital facets in the multifactorial syncretic dimensions of that journey.
Editor, may I add that I have watched three of Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo’s recent press conferences. As a foreigner, I know my place, but I believe that the press conferences would be much more informative and educational to all, if he included some clear graphics on the key points that he would wish to impart to the reporters and to the population at large. And include an updated visual story board on the status of key projects in the government’s master plan, for the sake of a better informed public and for managing reasonable expectations in a maelstrom of misleading information. (And get rid of that yellow background whose reflection makes him look perennially jaundiced).
Yours sincerely,
Tulsi Dyal Singh, MD.
