The chaos across the globe which characterised 2023 has continued into 2024. Even our own region has not been given a pass, considering that the under-reported situation in Haiti borders on anarchy. In the world at large there is the almost forgotten war in Sudan where the Sudanese Armed Forces are battling the Rapid Support Forces, which grew out of the Janjaweed. These earlier militias were responsible for acts in Darfur that had many of the characteristics of ethnic cleansing, and the RSF has now returned to East Darfur to pursue operations there that are similarly brutal. It has also effectively occupied the capital, Khartoum. As of January this year it is estimated that 13-15,000 Sudanese have been killed, 33,000 injured and 5.8 million internally displaced.
It is the war in Gaza, however, which has pushed every other major conflict off the front pages. The Middle East is a highly volatile environment, and Israel’s response to the Hamas terrorist attack of October 7th in conjunction with the actions of Iran’s proxies and retaliations against them have the potential to send the region into flames, with alarming consequences for the world at large. With an estimated 30,000 civilians killed, the desperately needed Gaza ceasefire has not yet been achieved, never mind agreement on the kind of transitional arrangements followed by long-term ones which would be necessary for the implementation of a two-state solution. Where the latter is concerned it would almost certainly first necessitate an Israeli election which would remove Prime Minister Netanyahu from office, along with the right-wing fanatics who shore up his government.
While Sudan has been pushed into the background largely because it is viewed as a localised conflict in comparison with Gaza, it could have wider implications if neighbouring states are more seriously affected and the larger region destabilised. There is, however, a third major conflict ongoing which has also been driven out of the headlines by Gaza, but whose outcome nevertheless would have major ramifications for the world order. That is the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the second anniversary of which will be marked tomorrow.
Up until now Ukraine has been supported by the West with money and arms, but it is currently facing a shortage of weapons and ammunition owing to the small-mindedness of a section of the Republican Party whose capacity for provincialism far exceeds its grasp of geopolitics. The refusal of Congress so far to vote the funding on which Ukraine depends has left that country with a shortage of weapons and ammunition, enabling Russia to make advances on the battle-front, among other things seizing the town of Avdiivka.
The thought of a Russian victory in Ukraine makes the Europeans very nervous, particularly countries like the Baltic states, who fear they would be next if Ukraine goes. While this would involve Russia in a direct confrontation with Nato, without the United States that organisation would face some serious challenges. In addition various commentators have advanced the thesis that a Russian win would represent a victory for the world’s autocracies which would then reorder international relations in their own interest.
But Russia has been spreading its tentacles far beyond Ukraine through the agency of a re-branded Wagner group, according to a report and internal Russian documents seen by the BBC. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries have not been disbanded, they are now operating under the direct control of the Russian government, and their multibillion dollar mining operations are mostly run as the ‘Expeditionary Corps.’
The former Wagner is well ensconced in parts of Africa, especially the Sahelian states of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, but also in countries like Libya and the Central African Republic, where in exchange for military assistance and the training of officers, including pilots, they secure rights over mineral resources. Citing the Blood Gold Report, the BBC said that Russia had obtained $2.5 billion worth of gold from Africa over the last two years, which no doubt helped to fund the war in Ukraine. The military juntas in the Sahel were originally supposed to have been transitional leaders committed to organising elections and a return to democracy. However, by bringing in Russian paramilitaries with their advanced equipment they can hang on indefinitely.
The modus operandi of the paramilitaries is as murderous as ever, and according to a UN report cited by the BBC, 500 people in the Malian town of Moura were summarily executed by Malian troops and “armed white men” who eyewitnesses said spoke an “unknown language.” Human Rights Watch identified them as Russian mercenaries. The news agency said there had been multiple claims that Wagner forces had carried out human rights abuses in Africa.
But what is also of significance is how Russia is working to change mining laws in West Africa with the aim of dislodging Western companies. Quoting Dr Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, the BBC said, “We are now observing the Russians attempting to strategically displace Western control of access to critical minerals and resources.” He was further quoted as saying, “What they are looking to do is to exacerbate our crises internationally. They are trying to start fires elsewhere, and expand those that already exist, making a less safe world.”
While clearly a Russian victory in Ukraine would have world-wide repercussions, and its neo-colonial operations in Africa should be a cause for concern, it could reasonably be asked what has this to do with Guyana specifically more than what happens in Gaza and Sudan. The answer lies in the connection with our neighbour Venezuela. Today is the anniversary of our Republic, symbolic of the breaking of the final link with our colonial past. Yet the nation to our west which respected our territorial integrity as an independent state for more than sixty years no longer does so. No one knows how long it will abide by the Declaration of Argyle, but what can be said is that it is close to Russia, and would have that nation’s backing if it decided on adventurism in Guyana.
Furthermore, it has the example of how Russia operates in Africa as a guide. It is difficult to see Venezuela taking on the oil platforms whatever happens in the outside world, but planning to raid this country’s gold deposits, which could compensate for the loss of oil revenue could come within their game plan. Hence all the activity in the Cuyuni area and on Ankoko. In such a scheme the Sindicatos, if not other gangs as well, corrupt, criminal and vicious as they are, would take on something of the role of the Wagner paramilitaries.
This does not mean this is going to happen, it is just one of several hypotheses to be taken into account when security measures are under consideration. What can be said is that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stopped off in Venezuela three days ago en route to the G20 foreign ministers summit in Brazil. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry the parties were to “discuss key issues of bilateral cooperation and interaction in the international arena and the regional and global situation.” Nothing was subsequently released about the details of the meetings held with the various officials, including the President.
However, President Maduro was quite voluble on the subject of Ukraine, saying that Washington and its allies had unleashed “an immoral war” against Moscow. Expanding on this he was quoted by the Venezuelan press as commenting, “In Ukraine, they carried out a coup d’état to position the war against Russia,” with the West “shaping that theatre of war against Russia. Moscow, however, had “resisted” Western pressure. Furthermore his estimate was that Nato and America’s war against Russia through Ukraine had become “unsustainable” for the US; “This is already leaking everywhere,” he was quoted as saying.
Whether he believes all this is very difficult to say, but it can be reasonably assumed that if Ukraine resistance collapses and Russia triumphs, he will regard it as opening possibilities for Venezuela.
