China seen treading careful path between Guyana, Venezuela – analysis

Photo of the slogan “el Esequibo es Nuestro” (Essequibo is ours) on the K-8W aircraft (source- GJ. Domingo Hernández Lárez’s post on X)
Photo of the slogan “el Esequibo es Nuestro” (Essequibo is ours) on the K-8W aircraft (source- GJ. Domingo Hernández Lárez’s post on X)

Venezuelan K-8W light attack aircraft flew across the Atlantic from Guiria on February 24, as reported by The Diplomat, bearing the slogan “El Essequibo es Nuestro” (“Essequibo is ours”) in an assertion of Venezuela’s claim to the region.

As tensions persist between Guyana and Venezuela, the role of international actors in mediating and influencing the dispute becomes increasingly critical. This bold display follows months of escalating rhetoric and actions by the Maduro government, including a contentious referendum in December 2023 seeking to annex Essequibo.

The dispute over Essequibo has become a focal point illustrating contrasting approaches by major global powers in Latin America and the Caribbean, a June 15 analysis in The Diplomat, an Asia-Pacific current affairs magazine said. Venezuela’s alignment with China has been pivotal in bolstering the Maduro regime economically and militarily. Chinese support, including significant investments and arms sales, has sustained Venezuela amid international sanctions, highlighting Beijing’s strategic interests in the region, the analysis said.

Amid these developments, international powers are also entangled in this regional standoff, none more significant than China. For Venezuela, Beijing has emerged not only as an economic lifeline but also a strategic partner in bolstering Maduro’s authoritarian regime. Since facing stringent sanctions in 2019, Venezuela has leaned heavily on China for economic support, with billions in Venezuelan crude flowing to China, The Diplomat said. This financial infusion, coupled with Chinese weaponry like the K-8Ws used in recent aerial displays, highlights Beijing’s pivotal role in Maduro’s defiance against international laws.

On the other hand, China’s engagement with Guyana has emphasized economic cooperation under the guise of mutual benefit, with substantial investments in infrastructure and energy projects. Chinese involvement, including a stake in Guyana’s lucrative Stabroek oil block, has led to economic growth but also drawn criticism for potential geopolitical implications.

The analysis moted that the United States, meanwhile, has intensified diplomatic and military engagements with Guyana to counterbalance Venezuelan and Chinese influence. High-level visits and military assistance underpin Washington’s commitment to regional stability and support for Guyana’s defense capabilities against potential threats from Venezuela. U.S. commitments, the Diplomat said, have gone beyond mere rhetoric, demonstrated by recent actions such as the F/A-18 flyover and efforts to assist the Guyana Defence Force (GDF) in upgrading its military capabilities. For example, in 2023, the United States supplied additional Bell-412 helicopters and a new patrol craft, bolstering the GDF’s aerial and maritime capabilities.

Despite reports of low turnout and tepid public enthusiasm for annexation, the analysis said that Maduro has used the referendum as justification to intensify Venezuela’s assertive stance, prompting international concern and condemnation. In response, the United States has demonstrated support for Guyana through symbolic gestures, such as one of the first operations of the USS George Washington’s tour of South America being a flyover of Georgetown, Guyana on 9th May 2024, by two F/A-18 Super Hornets.

The implications of the Essequibo dispute extend beyond bilateral concerns, impacting regional stability and global power dynamics. The analysis said that the United States’ strategic response includes bolstering Guyana’s defence through Foreign Military Financing and expanding infrastructure projects to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the region. This approach aims to bolster Guyana’s resilience and reduce dependency on Chinese economic influence.

The United States advocates for adherence to international legal norms and has urged diplomatic resolutions through channels like the International Court of Justice. Conversely, the analysis said that China’s approach attempts to balance relations with both Venezuela and Guyana, leveraging economic incentives while navigating geopolitical sensitivities.

In navigating the Essequibo dispute, the analysis said that the international community faces a pivotal moment, where careful diplomacy and strategic maneuvering will be crucial in mitigating tensions and fostering stability in Latin America and the Caribbean. As regional dynamics evolve, the roles of China, the United States, and other global actors will continue to shape the outcome, highlighting the complexities and stakes involved in this longstanding territorial controversy.