(Trinidad Guardian) The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has placed the Lesser Antilles on alert as a tropical disturbance dubbed Invest 95L is forecast to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm east of the Windward Islands.
In their 2:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC says the tropical disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, but “environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and development of this system is likely.”
The NHC gives this system a medium (60%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and a high (80%) chance of development over the next seven days.
While there are no tropical cyclone-based watches or warnings for any island at this time, multiple meteorological offices across the region are on alert. The Barbados Meteorological Service, which forecasts impacts from this disturbance and eventual system on Sunday through Monday, has issued yellow alerts for wind, marine conditions, severe thunderstorms, and excessive rainfall.
The latest forecast guidance moves the core of this system north of Trinidad and Tobago and south of Barbados from Sunday night through Monday night and moves across the southern Windwards, from Grenada to St. Lucia, through Tuesday.
While there is higher than usual certainty on the forecast path through Tuesday, the system’s intensity is not as clear, with models showing a wide range of outcomes – from a low-end tropical storm to a Category 3 Hurricane as it moves across the Windward Islands.
