This is the year for elections across the globe. The most important one is in the United States because its potential effects will be felt worldwide, but that is still a few months away. More immediately, by the time this appears it is likely there will be new occupant in No. 10, and assuming there is, if Sir Keir Starmer retains most of his shadow cabinet there might in addition be a Foreign Secretary of Guyanese parentage – Mr David Lammy.
From this country’s point of view the most critical poll in the near future will be the one next door in Venezuela, which is due on July 28, although whether it will qualify as a true election in a democratic sense is very much in doubt. The Americans are clearly concerned about the consequences of another Nicolás Maduro victory, and after approaching the Venezuelan President about a meeting, he eventually agreed. The first of these encounters has now been held, although it was not in a face-to-face format but a virtual one. Venezuela was represented by President of the National Assembly Jorge Rodríguez, and the US by National Security Advisor Dan Erikson.
Exactly what came out of it is unclear, Mr Rodríguez confining himself to the uninformative comment that the two sides had agreed to continue working to maintain “constructive and respectful communication.” There were agreements last year between the two sides when they met in Qatar, and while Mr Rodríguez said that further discussions would not go beyond these, the public does not know what they are because they have never been revealed.
President Maduro finds himself in a tricky set of circumstances. Like all autocrats he is not of a mind to relinquish power, but he is in a much weaker position than he was in the last general election in 2018. The dire economic situation of the country aggravated by renewed American sanctions has undermined his support even in traditional Chavista areas, and he has seriously underestimated the unity and popularity of the opposition this time around.
He has been making moves to manipulate an outcome in his favour, but despite these he might still be forced into blatant falsification of the results if he wants to stay in office. He knows, however, that the price for that will be high, with even his friends on the continent like Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Gustavo Petro of Colombia abandoning him, in addition to which he would be forced to surrender the ambitions he has been nurturing of securing a higher profile in the international arena and becoming a member of BRICS.
According to Caracas Chronicles while the Electoral Register records 21.3 million registered voters, the real number is probably a lot less than that. Four million of them, for example are living abroad and were unable to switch polling stations in time for the renewal deadline. The case of Colombia is cited, for example, where only 7,200 of the 1.9 million registered Venezuelans will be able to vote, while it is estimated that there could also be between 100,000 and 200,000 deceased voters on the register. The news site estimates that the maximum number of voters for this election is likely to be around 13.5 million.
As well as disenfranchising voters the Maduro controlled National Electoral Council has
disqualified María Corina Machado, the opposition leader who was elected in a primary by 2.5 million people from participating in the poll. Her ban was upheld by the Supreme Court. Ms Machado then selected Corina Yoris as her replacement, but she was not allowed to register although no explanation was given. According to reports 37 political and social leaders and activists have been imprisoned since March.
On a tour of Táchira state Ms Machado pointed to the intensification of attacks on various elected authorities, including the kidnapping of the Mayor of Colón and the persecution of other mayors. Added to this were the actions of the motorized groups associated with the ruling party who took actions to prevent her and her associates from accessing petrol during her campaign in the state. Other reports have said that hotels, inns and restaurants where opposition leaders stay or eat on their travels around the country have been closed.
On election day itself Caracas Chronicles has alluded to a range of other strategies which have been used in the past, such as producing irregularities in opposition-leaning polling centres to obstruct and slow down voting. There would also be delays in the opening of these polling stations, in contrast to those sited in Chavista areas where everything is expedited. The ruling party also has cohorts of motorists and activists charged with intimidating, harassing and proselytizing around polling centres. The news site anticipates even more aggressive practices on election day.
Mr Maduro’s problem is that he does not apparently command the number of militants and various other groups who could control the streets and centres that he used to. These have diminished, it has been reported, since a high of the early 2000s, and it is thought that if the opposition can mobilise enough volunteers and instruct sufficient witnesses they could make an impact on countering irregularities.
In addition, the head of state clearly misjudged the opposition after accepting the nomination of a completely unknown retired diplomat, Edmundo González Urrutia as their presidential candidate after Ms Yoris was barred. If the rulers thought Mr González was no threat, they have now been disabused of that notion, since Ms Machado has gone all over the country campaigning for him, and all her supporters, new and old, have rallied round his candidacy.
For his part, President Maduro is trying to leave nothing to chance, having in late May withdrawn the invitation to the EU to send observers. He had already decided not to abide by the Barbados Declaration agreed between the government and opposition in Barbados, which caused the US to reimpose sanctions in mid-April. In a move to ensure the military remained onside he promoted 56 army generals this week, so there will now be 25 new Division Generals and 31 Brigadier Generals. There have also been promotions in military counterintelligence. The implications are not far to seek.
The opposition leaders are quite clear-eyed, however, about the problems they would face if they did actually win, and they have been trying to reassure senior members of the ruling party about their intentions. There would be a six-month transition period in any case before a new president could take office, and Mr González told CNN that an amnesty for outgoing officials could be on the table. “In all political transitions and political crises, you have amnesty agreements and transitional justice. All the countries who have gone through situations like ours have ended up granting it, so I don’t rule out we could take a similar measure in Venezuela,” he was quoted as saying.
Ms Machado expressed corresponding views this week in a Colombian newspaper, being reported as saying they were “willing to move forward” in a negotiation process with the ruling party, offering full guarantees in order for there to be a political transition. Other voices too are echoing this view, including former Venezuelan Ambassador to Guyana Sadio Garavini who wrote that Presidents Petro and Lula, supported by President Macron and the EU had made it clear that for a free election to be viable there had to be personal political public guarantees for the ‘losers.’ “[I]n all successful transitions, guarantees were negotiated for those who handed over power. De Klerk was Mandela’s vice president. Pinochet, commander of Aylwin’s Army …” he wrote.
The question is will this be enough for President Maduro, his associates and supporters? What will his Cuban advisors tell him? After all, they are still dependent on Venezuelan oil. And will even the Russians have something to say in his ear? If irrationality wins out, then the Caracas Chronicles had three possibilities to put forward. First, the Supreme Court could invalidate the opposition polling card shortly before July 28, leaving insufficient time for opposition parties to inform supporters that they must vote using other cards. Second, in the event of a narrow victory for Mr González the results would be challenged. And third, the elections could be postponed owing to an ‘exceptional’ situation relating to Essequibo.
How all this evolves affects us too.
