With the US election just a few months away, the US-Guyana relationship is sure to be impacted. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are likely to be the candidates come November (even a change in Democratic nominee will see a continuation of Biden’s policies). Since both have already served a first term, it sheds light on how a second term might look. Understanding the nuances of each potential president administration is essential to Guyana’s growth–as the United States is the country’s main trading partner and is a driver of foreign investment.
A second Biden term will benefit from policy continuity. Since his election, high level US representatives have routinely traveled to Guyana, yielding tangible benefits from increased investment and security cooperation. In part, this is because of Guyana’s growing status as an emerging oil and gas hub and the US embassy’s efforts to promote Guyana with their counterparts in Washington DC. And while there will be changes to Biden’s cabinet in a second term, relevant US agencies, such as the Departments of State and Commerce are acutely aware of how Guyana’s growth benefits US interests, meaning that high-level engagement will continue.
Policy continuity from a second Biden term also yields other benefits. Policies have more time to take shape and attract financial resources when they last eight years as opposed to four. A new US policy or strategy to Guyana and the wider Caribbean starting in 2025 can set back the relationship, whereas a continuation of policies such as PACC 2030 (a Biden-Harris-led Caribbean policy) can see US agencies double down on efforts to back Guyana’s regional food security plans and streamline investment into the clean energy sector.
However, while PACC 2030 continuity exists, it also means that at least at a high level, Guyana will face an uphill battle to receive significant support for its hydrocarbon sector. In the past few years, we’ve seen how climate-focused politics in the White House can influence financial assistance for oil and gas projects. This trend is likely to continue as a Biden legacy term might see an even bigger push towards global clean energy development. For the local Guyanese private sector, it means that the increased US political will can lead to more financial and technical support in the clean energy and agriculture sector.
A second Trump term will likely heavily favor Guyana’s hydrocarbon sector and rely on strictly a bilateral relationship. Energy security is going to be a feature of any presidency as global oil and gas markets shift due to a consolidating oil industry and rising geopolitical tensions. A second Trump administration has an opportunity to partner with Guyana to frame the country’s hydrocarbon success as an example of the global oil industry’s strength (despite analysis from global entities warning of peak demand by 2030) as well as regional energy security. Here, in a quid pro quo scenario, Guyana can win out, using its marginal but growing share of global energy production as leverage for greater US engagement.
Whereas as the Biden administration focused on Guyana through a regional lens, a second Trump will focus on a bilateral relationship with Guyana, meaning less appetite for the country’s regional ambitions and coordination efforts. Accompanying this will likely include a pro-US stance alongside a countering China rhetoric. This was the Trump administration’s approach during the first term across the Caribbean (often with little success), and it can put Guyana at a disadvantage if its development is framed as Chinese enabled. Still, the opportunities are endless in a second Trump term. Local private sector entities, particularly those working in the oil and gas space, might see more financing opportunities for new projects while other sectors could lose out. Given Guyana’s importance for US companies, cabinet level officials might travel more often to Guyana and a hardline approach might be taken to geopolitical actors that threaten the country’s development.
Despite their differences, there are several policy similarities for Guyana to comprehend. Both, although through different ways, will want to focus on strengthening Guyana’s regulatory and investment environment to be more friendly to US firms. This will be essential if Guyana wants to graduate from small and medium sized investments (mostly US$100 million and below) to projects sized in the hundreds of millions. Those US firms, whether investors or lenders, will need to see significant regulatory changes that de-risk projects or even entire sectors.
Second, both will be “America first.” Trump’s focus on protecting US industries and their global competitiveness was a significant feature of his first term. Biden has also engaged in his own version of “America first.” The Inflation Reduction Act draws investment away from other regions and into the United States and he has led the way on reshoring/nearshoring opportunities into the Western Hemisphere. For Guyana, this means engagement with the United States has to be active, not waiting on US officials to provide outreach as each presidency focuses mostly on its own citizens and interests at the outset of a new term.
For Guyana, either a second Biden or Trump term is good test in how it manages relations with its strongest partner. First, critical to managing the ebbs and flow of political changes in the United States is by seeking out long-term relationships. There are several ways to do this, from US Congressional engagement to long-term investments from big corporate entities. What’s important is that Guyana does not get caught up in US headlines and disaggregates the relationship by strengthening its positions in the US Congress through the Washington embassy and working closer with US companies entering the country.
Wazim Mowla leads the Atlantic Council’s Caribbean Initiative in Washington DC and is Vice President of the ACE Consulting Group based in Guyana. Mowla is also a nonresident scholar at Florida International University.
