By Charles A. Kupchan
WASHINGTON, DC – Kamala Harris can win the US presidency. Yes, Donald Trump is a formidable candidate, whose campaign was bolstered by his defiant reaction to the July 13 attempt on his life. But Harris has emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee with stunning speed following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal; within a matter of days, she clinched the support of more delegates than needed to secure the nomination at next month’s party convention in Chicago.
Minutes after Biden stepped aside, Harris was making calls and corralling backers. Biden’s campaign apparatus got behind its new candidate without a hitch. Within 48 hours, Harris had raised $100 million and had effective access to the war chest that Biden had already amassed. An overwhelming 70% of Democrats were in favor of rallying behind Harris rather than holding an open competition. Polls show Harris and Trump in a virtual tie, making clear that Harris has quickly closed the widening lead that Trump had built over Biden.
This surge in support for Harris stems in part from relief among Democrats that they now have a fighting chance, but it also reflects widespread enthusiasm about her appeal, record, and qualifications. With an Indian mother, a Jamaican father, and a Jewish husband, Harris’s multicultural credentials will help her rally enthusiasm among younger, more progressive voters and non-whites – groups Biden struggled to reach. She engages intently on domestic issues that are high priorities for these cohorts, including racial and gender equity, reproductive rights, immigration, and climate change.
Harris’s position on the Gaza war also appeals to progressives. In March, she called for “an immediate ceasefire” and told Binyamin Netanyahu last Thursday that she “will not be silent” on Palestinian suffering.
Trump has labeled Harris a “radical left person,” but she is in fact a pragmatic centrist. During her bid for the 2020 presidential nomination, Harris did veer toward the progressive camp on some issues – particularly climate change. But throughout her career she has generally aligned with her party’s moderates. As a prosecutor in California, she faced criticism from the left for being too tough on crime. As a US senator and now as vice president, her views on most issues have been broadly in line with the centrist policies pursued by Biden. On the economic front, those policies have contributed to a robust post-pandemic recovery.
According to Trump, Harris is the “bum” responsible for the influx of migrants across the southern border while she served as vice president. Biden’s administration admittedly struggled to reduce illegal immigration. But Harris was not the “border czar” that Republicans make her out to be. Her main role was to lead the administration’s effort to tackle the root causes of migrant flows by fighting corruption and improving economic opportunity in the so-called Northern Triangle of Central America – El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.
Such efforts take years to pay off. In the meantime, Harris has been delivering a tough message. “Do not come,” she warned Guatemalans in 2021, adding, “If you come to our border, you will be turned back.”
After Republicans – at Trump’s prompting – sank an ambitious, bipartisan immigration reform bill in June, Biden issued an executive order to clamp down on illegal border crossings. Help from Mexican authorities, as well as the introduction of an app that allows asylum seekers in Mexico to schedule an appointment at a US port of entry, has helped stem the flow. These policies – hardly the work of radical leftists – have reduced unauthorized border crossings to a lower level than when Trump’s first presidential term ended in 2021.
Harris’s pragmatic centrism should broaden her appeal among moderates in the swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that will likely determine the result in November. Trump was already having difficulty garnering support among independents and moderate Republicans, and he only made it harder for himself by picking US Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate.
By choosing Vance, Trump doubled down on energizing his base – whites without a college education, who represent just over 40% of the electorate. But Trump cannot win just by rallying this sizable base, which is why he may come to regret choosing a running mate who fails to broaden the electoral appeal of the Republican ticket. Furthermore, Ohio is already a reliably Republican state, so picking an Ohioan does little to boost Trump’s prospects.
By locating herself in the political center, Harris has a crucial opportunity to win over moderate swing-state voters. To that end, she is likely to choose as her running mate a prominent swing-state politician. Moreover, Harris should be able to gain traction among moderate women voters in suburban communities, many of whom have trouble tolerating Republican positions on abortion rights as well as Trump’s sordid past, crude rhetoric, and chronic legal problems.
Harris has the experience needed to prevail. Her background as a prosecutor should serve her well when she debates a convicted felon who sought to overturn the 2020 election without a shred of supporting evidence. And whereas most recent presidents, including Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump entered office without any meaningful experience in US foreign policy, Harris has spent almost four years benefiting from the mentorship of Biden, one of America’s most seasoned statesmen.
Harris has met over 100 world leaders and traveled to virtually every corner of the globe. She has been at the forefront of efforts to address emerging challenges, including artificial-intelligence safety and US strategy toward both commercial and national-security activities in outer space. Serving as vice president also gave her the opportunity to master the policymaking process, a notable asset in view of the chaos that characterized Trump’s White House.
Now that she is in the spotlight, Harris is effectively re-introducing herself to many Americans. Her recent public appearances have the more natural feel that she needs to make an authentic connection to the electorate and build on the excitement and momentum that have so quickly materialized.
Harris and Trump are in a dead heat, and the stakes could not be higher. Biden made that clear in his Oval Office address on July 24: “Whether we keep our republic is now in your hands.” Harris is the right person at the right time to achieve that goal.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.
