Guyana has seen a growth of 8.7 percent in the agriculture sector, except for sugar, driven by rice, fishing, and forestry, according to the country’s Mid-Year Financial report recently released by the Ministry of Finance.
“Growth in these subsectors outweighed the declines observed for livestock and sugar…,” the report states.
Rice, the report estimates to have grown by 19.9 percent, with the Guyana Rice Development Board reporting production of 362.030 tonnes of rice, compared with 302,295 tonnes in the first half of 2023.
“On account of favourable weather conditions, the yield achieved for the first crop of 2024 was 6.6 tonnes per hectare, compared with 6.2 tonnes per hectare in the first crop of last year. Given the better-than-anticipated performance in the first crop, the production estimate for the year has been revised upward to 717,032 tonnes of rice equivalent. The sector is now projected to grow by 8.9% this year, better than the 6.2% stated in the Budget,” the report says.
It states that the other crops subsector is estimated to have expanded by 8.8 percent in the first half of 2024, mainly on account of increased production of vegetables, root crops, fruits, beans and cereals, and spices. “The output from these subcategories expanded by 14.2 percent, 12.7 percent, 7.1 percent, 57.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively,” it says.
“Notably, in the beans and cereals subcategory, corn production grew by nearly 400 percent when compared with output in the first half of last year. A combination of factors contributed to the improved performance of other crops, including favourable weather conditions and an expansion in shade house cultivation. Growth for this subsector is now projected at 12.7 percent for 2024.”
The report has also indicated that for the first half of the year the economy grew by 49.7 percent and the non-oil economy by an estimated 12.6 percent thus increasing the overall growth forecast this year from to 42.3 percent.
“Guyana’s real economy grew by an estimated 49.7 percent in the first half of this year. Growth continues to be driven by expansion in the oil and gas industry, along with strong continued growth in our non-oil sectors. Guyana’s non-oil real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 12.6 percent in the first half of the year, notwithstanding challenges in some traditional sectors,” the report which can be found on the Ministry of Finance’s website states.
“Looking ahead, the overall outlook for 2024 remains positive, as strong performance in other sectors enable us to largely maintain our non-oil growth expectation. Overall real GDP growth for 2024 is now projected at 42.3 percent, with non-oil growth of 11.8 percent. Once realised, this will represent the fourth successive year of expansion in the non-oil economy, following the contraction in 2020,” it adds.
On Friday last, President Irfaan Ali had disclosed that the Ministry of Finance had completed the 2024 half year report. “In the first half of this year, our overall real GDP grew by an estimated 49.7%… This is real GDP growth for the first half of this year… What is impressive is that the non-oil economy continues to grow, and the non-oil economy grew by an estimated 12.6%,” Ali had said.
“Pushing this growth and supporting this growth heavily for almost all the sectors, the sectors that face difficulties early in this year because of the drought conditions and other circumstances, are expected to rebound in the second half of this year and tomorrow morning, I’ll be outlining the strategy that will demonstrate how these sectors will rebound but the construction sector grew by an estimated 43.7%.”
Yesterday, the Stabroek News reported from The Mid-Year Report that the sugar industry is estimated to have contracted by 60.4 percent in the first half of this year, with production of 6,739 tonnes of sugar reported by the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) and the projected annual production slashed from 100,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes.
“This performance is attributed to the carried over impacts of drier-than-usual weather conditions last year into the second quarter of this year. As a result of the performance in the first half of the year, the growth projection for the sector is now 16.3 percent for 2024, with a revised projection of 70,000 tonnes of sugar to be produced this year,” the report says.
The continuing poor results in the sugar industry, necessitating high subsidies to keep it going places the government under pressure.
The report says that government interventions aimed at diversifying and modernising the sugar industry, while reducing the cost of production, continued in the first half of this year.
This newspaper also reported that from January to June this year, Guyana received US$1,220.6 million as revenue from its share of profit oil from 13 of the 15 lifts that occurred in the first six months of this year and two lifts that occurred in the final quarter of 2023.
It said that the government also received US$162.4 million in royalties related to production and sales from the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. In July, the government received US$167.6 million as profit oil payments for two lifts that were executed in June. The cumulative balance, inclusive of interest income of US$64.1 million, at the end of June was US$2,870.6 million, after withdrawals of US$550 million.
At the beginning of the year, the Mid Year Report says, it was anticipated that there would be 25 lifts of profit oil from the Stabroek Block.
Bauxite and gold contraction
The report says the bauxite mining subsector is estimated to have contracted by 20 percent in the first half of the year.
“Total bauxite production is estimated at 196,650 tonnes in the first half of this year. This performance is driven by lower output from both producers, who continue to grapple with marketing and operational challenges. The performance of the larger producer is expected to improve in the second half of the year, with its ramped-up production of metallurgical grade (MAZ) bauxite. The smaller operator anticipates that production will return to more stable rates, as plant reliability and operational issues have been addressed,” the report says. Overall production for 2024 is now projected at just over 1,620,000 tonnes, and the sector is now projected to grow at 41.3 percent.
The gold mining subsector was also reported to have contracted in the first half of this year, declining by 10.3 percent when compared with the position at the end of the first half of last year. “At the end of June 2024, gold declarations stood at 188,160 ounces, with the 35.3 percent increase in declarations from the lone large producer outweighed by lower declarations from the small and medium-scale producers. Declarations from the latter fell from 159,084 ounces in the first half last year, to 119,603 ounces at the end of June this year. Given the performance in the first half of the year, the sub sectors now projected to grow by 2.1 percent this year,” the report says.
When it comes to diamonds and manganese, these two also saw respective contractions of 23.9 percent and 9.2 percent.
Sand, stone and construction
However, when it came to quarrying substantial expansion was recorded in the subsector, which is estimated to have grown by 45.5 percent in the first half of the year, driven by higher declarations of sand and stone.
“Sand and stone declarations are estimated to have grown by 46.6 percent and 73.4 percent, respectively,” the report says.
With construction activity countrywide continuing to drive growth in sand and stone mining, the other mining and quarrying sector is now estimated to grow by 24.7 percent this year.
Meanwhile, the construction sector is estimated to have expanded by 43.7 percent in the first half of the year. “This sector continues to be driven by both government’s Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) and private sector investments across several sectors, including accommodation and food services and real estate activities. With massive infrastructural projects progressing across the country, the sector is now forecasted to grow by 27.2 percent this year, up from the 23.4 percent projected at the beginning of the year,” the report says.
