(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are just slightly lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, ahead of some major U.S. economic data on Friday. December gold was last down $1.30 at $2,668.40 and December silver was down $0.145 at $31.775. On tap Friday morning is the September U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department, arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 150,000 compared to a rise of 142,000 jobs in the August report. There is also a slew of U.S. data released Thursday.
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. China markets are closed for a holiday this week. U.S. stock indexes are again pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins, on keener risk aversion in the general marketplace. Israel continues its offensive in Lebanon and has vowed to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack this week. Most believe the situation will further escalate. A Barron’s story today says, “It’s rare for gold to beat stocks, but it’s doing so handily this year.” The story adds that short-term traders are part of the reason and “hedge funds have piled in—collectively they are more bullish than at any time since at least the mid-1980s.” Safe-haven demand, generally lower global interest rates, central bank buying and bullish technical charts are the main elements pushing gold prices north the past few months. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $71.75 a barrel. Oil has been boosted by the Middle East flare-up. However, gains have been limited on reports OPEC-plus may roll back some production cuts. Reads a DowJones Newswires headline today: “Middle East escalation could push oil to $100 but spike likely short-lived.” The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is on the decline and is presently fetching 3.802%. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services PMI, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the ISM report on business services, and the global services PMI. Technically, December gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,800.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,600.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,683.40 and then at this week’s high of $2,694.70. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,660.80 and then at this week’s low of $2,646.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.0. December silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $32.17 and then at $32.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $31.155 and then at $31.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.
Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.
