Dear Editor,
Ram and McRae conducted a “survey” that purports to represent the views of “all Guyanese” in respect of the renegotiation of the 2016 Petroleum Agreement. The total number of respondents, according to the report, 139. When the survey was conducted, I had the opportunity to review the survey questions. Not only were the questions biased, but also such that they were framed in a manner to yield a certain type of result.
Moreover, the survey “glorifiers” who have disingenuously sold the survey results as a representation of the vast majority of Guyanese, when all they do is to project their opinions from their “armchairs”, is a disservice to Guyanese, because none of them have gone into the fields and engage with the people directly in the manner the government does across the country. And none of them have that benefit of direct feedback from practically the entire population as the government would have, through public outreaches and engagement with the people across the country.
Returning to the case of Guyana, there were two unprecedented events that weakened the incumbent government’s position, even if it wanted to renegotiate the Stabroek Block’s Petroleum Agreement. The government would have been in a stronger position if by the time it assumed office following the general and regional elections, EMGL had not moved to production, and a Final Investment Decision (FID) was not yet made.
Recall that after the successful passage of the “No-Confidence Motion” (NCM) in December 2018, the general and regional elections were constitutionally due three months thereafter; but was not held until March 2020, then the election result was declared five months later in August 2020. Consequently, almost one and a half years later, there was a change in government following the NCM in December 2018 and the general elections in March 2020.
Cognizant of these ramifications, EMGL intentionally, aggressively transitioned into production in record time by December 2019 from commercial discovery in May 2015. By EMGL’s own admission, the timeline by which they moved from discovery to first oil in less than five years, was a record achievement across the global industry. Historically, it took about ten years to develop projects from commercial discovery to production following an investment decision. Therefore, considering that the FID for the Stabroek Block was based on the 2016 Agreement and the fact that EMGL had already started production, renegotiation was thus made difficult in these circumstances.
Sincerely,
Joel Bhagwandin