WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republicans took a step toward winning control of the U.S. Senate with a victory in West Virginia on Tuesday, while neither party appeared to have an edge in the battle for the House of Representatives.
With both chambers of Congress at stake, the results will determine how successfully the next president – Republican Donald Trumpor Democrat Kamala Harris – will be able to govern over the next two years.
Republican Jim Justice was projected to win an open seat in West Virginia shortly after polls closed, which would put the party at 50-50 parity with Democrats in the 100-seat chamber. The seat was previously held by Joe Manchin, a Democrat-turned-independent.
The balance of power could change over the course of the night as other results come in.
Nonpartisan analysts say Republicans stand a good chance of taking back the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority. But Republicans could also lose their grip on the House, where Democrats only need to pick up four seats to take back control of the 435-seat chamber.
As in the presidential election, the outcome will likely be determined by a small slice of voters. The battle for the Senate hinges on seven contests, while fewer than 40 House races are seen as truly competitive.
Democrats are playing defense as they try to retain their hold on the Senate, whose members serve six-year terms. Republicans only need to gain two seats to win control of the chamber, and Justice’s victory in West Virginia got them halfway there.
Republicans could secure their majority with a victory in Ohio, where incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown was leading Republican challenger Bernie Moreno 48.9% to 48.4% with 46% of the estimated vote counted. Republicans also have spent heavily to win Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester faces a tough re-election battle.
Republicans stand a chance to widen their Senate majority further if they win races in several competitive Midwestern states. That would allow them to block many of Harris’ initiatives and personnel appointments if she were to win the White House, or help Trump deliver on his promised tax cuts if he wins. But they are unlikely to end up with the 60-vote majority needed to advance most legislation in the chamber.
In Nebraska, Republican Senator Deb Fischer faces a surprisingly strong challenge from an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, who has not said whether he would line up with Democrats in the Senate if he were to win.
The picture is less clear in the House, where Republicans hold a narrow 220-212 majority. Analysts say Democrats could easily pick up enough seats to win control of the chamber, though there are no signs of a “wave” election, akin to 2018 or 2010, that would result in a decisive shift in power.
With at least 200 seats safe for each party, the winning side will likely end up with a narrow majority that could make governing difficult. That has been evident in the past two years as Republican infighting has led to failed votes and leadership turmoil and undercut the party’s efforts to cut spending and tighten immigration.
Tight races in the heavily Democratic states of New York and California could determine House control, though the final outcome may not be known for several days as California typically takes several days to count its ballots.
Voters in Delaware could elect the first transgender member of Con-gress, if Democrat Sarah McBride wins as expected. With 59% of the vote counted, she was leading Republican Eric Hansen by 58% to 43%.
The Senate could also see two Black women serving simultaneously for the first time, if Democrat Angela Alsobrooks wins a competitive race in Mary-land. In neighboring Dela-ware, Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester won as expected.