Introduction
In today’s column, I start with a very brief summary of Rystad Energy’s recent global data on petroleum reserves self-generated by the firm, based on its own reporting of the firm’s independent estimation of global holdings of petroleum reserves. This is followed by Rystad Energy reporting on Guyana.
Afterwards, in a later column, I shall focus on reporting the status of Guyana’s reserves. In this case I shall introduce readers to my personal efforts at estimating this figure.
Rystad Energy Global Estimation
Earlier this year in this Sunday column I had cause to draw readers’ attention to Rystad Energy’s herculean effort to provide its clients with a 2023 review of the status and distribution of the world’s petroleum reserves. At that global scale, the reported data on exploration and development in Guyana made it quite clear that, on the one hand, Guyana held a robust relative endowment, globally. And, on the other Guyana’s relative smallness must be noted; [in terms of economy, population, geographic area] when compared to the global giants in terms of their recoverable reserves holdings.
According to Rystad Energy, the global total of recoverable reserves is estimated at more than 1.6 trillion barrels last year. This represents an increase of 52 billion barrels on its 2022 estimate.
Turning to the details, Saudi Arabia is at the top of the 2023 list. It was estimated to hold in that year, more than 250 billion recoverable barrels of oil, followed by the United States, a distant second. Next, at under 200 billion barrels of oil come Russia, Canada and Iraq – in that order, each has between 100 and 150 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
Finally, Iran, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil have recoverable reserves between 50 and 100 billion barrels of oil.
Rystad Energy Guyana Estimation
In this Section I delve deeper into Rystad Energy’s reported estimates of reserves in Guyana. It reported that Guyana had a “stellar 2022”. It cited 10 new finds, which included a record nine new discoveries in a calendar year within the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block and one in CGX’s Corentyne tract.
This success yielded an estimated new cumulative recoverable resource of about 1.8 Bboe, securing Guyana pole position among countries with the highest conventional discovered volumes last year. The “outstanding success” in the country, particularly on the prolific Stabroek Block, has led E&P players to allocate a sizeable portion of upstream spending toward further exploration as well as maturation of discoveries toward development, meaning Guyana will continue to be at the forefront of global upstream activity in 2023, Rystad claimed.
Guyana added about 1.8 Bboe of additional resources last year, according to Rystad Energy’s conservative approach, surpassing all other countries in terms of cumulative recoverable resources unearthed in the year. The fresh resources came from 10 new finds, nine of which were on Stabroek and the remaining one, Kawa, on CGX’s Corentyne Block and which added 99 MMboe.
The nine discoveries on Stabroek comprised Yarrow (74 MMboe), Sailfin (334 MMboe), Lau Lau (338 MMboe), Fangtooth (175 MMboe), Barreleye (246 MMboe), Lukanani (122 MMboe), Patwa (115 MMboe), Seabob (139 MMboe) and Kiru Kiru (105 MMboe).
Rystad said these 10 new finds have helped strengthen the already established discovery trend line and have seen the resurgence of a secondary parallel zone. They have expanded the play fairway with fields that are viable for commercial development, strengthening the ambition of ExxonMobil and its partners CNOOC International and Hess of eventually deploying 10 FPSO vessels on Stabroek.
The Kawa discovery is also significant in that it was made away from Stabroek, outside of which exploration results to date have been disappointing, Rystad reported. Kawa de-risks future exploration on Corentyne, where operator CGX and its partner Frontera Energy have in recent days spud their second well, Wei-1.
Moreover, Guyana is in talks with Qatar, Britain, the United Arab Emirates and India on the possibility of allocating offshore blocks for oil and gas exploration under a bidding round this year, President Irfaan Ali said on January 23. With more than 11 Bbbl of oil and gas discovered, the country has scheduled an auction of offshore exploration areas and said it would consider government-to-government talks with national oil companies.
Prior to that news, it was announced that Guyana’s revenue from oil exports and royalties this year is expected to climb 31% to $1.63 billion, Finance Minister Ashni Singh said on Jan. 16, on higher output
Within four years after its First Oil, Guyana was already hailed as the Americas’ Fastest Rising Petrostate. Two preliminary observations are warranted, however. First, I concede that, in spite of my desire to locate Guyana’s petroleum resources and reserves discoveries in an absolutely precise setting, in actuality I cannot. Indeed, confusion and non-specificity prevail in all estimates I have come across thus far. I should add, including those from the Operator, ExxonMobil and partners, mainly on account of their datedness. Second, the high per person estimates of petroleum finds in Guyana can mislead due to Guyana’s small population.
I remind readers that I referenced this earlier in my quick look at the global level of petroleum holdings.
Guyana Potential
Make no mistake about it though, Guyana is already an impressive oil and gas destination. ExxonMobil Operator/Contractor claims proven reserves of more than 11 billion plus oil-equivalent barrels, Bboe, in the Stabroek Block. Reportedly, Independent analysts [Americas Market Intelligence] have cited more than 20 billion boe to their prospective clients.
The government [Owner] recently auctioned 14 blocks at the conclusion of its first offshore licensing round. The President advised prospective investors that 25 billion potential boe are at stake. Current block holders outside of Stabroek have reportedly done assessments of their licence areas, with several billion more barrels estimated to be at stake. Rystad Energy claims that, if proven, this would place Guyana on par with Kuwait, which is listed in its ranking at number 10, with around 50 billion boe.
Conclusion
Next week I report on my personal estimate
