Blackouts and reality

Recent blackouts have underlined how this government – like its predecessors – has signally failed to deliver a reliable, stable electricity supply. The promises have been endless but the reality has been that it just can’t deliver.  No matter the additional generation it has procured and with more on the way it is still to master the shortcomings of the transmission and distribution system which has been the bane of all administrations over the last 40 years.

It has been compounded by a hodgepodge  of works funded with large  loans and credits primarily from the IDB and China’s Export-Import Bank. Yet the power system remains brittle and the the only people smiling at the moment are the middlemen and the suppliers of the generators from Honduras and the power ships.  There is a lot of money to be made off of this government which continues to shamelessly invest in Heavy Fuel Oil generators despite the absolute need for green fuels.

In June of 2014, the IDB and the EU put together a US$64M financing programme to cut GPL’s losses among other areas. The Power Utility Upgrade Programme (PUUP) was the latest in a series of expensive financing packages for the utility. The IDB approved loans totalling approximately US$37.6 million and also secured non-reimbursable investment financing from the EU to the tune of US$26.9 million to “help boost the efficiency and reliability of Guyana’s power system through electricity loss reduction measures, improvements in the operational capabilities, and strengthening the management and corporate performance” of GPL.

An IDB release on the deal pointed to the expected results: (1) a sustained trend in overall loss reduction; (2) an improved and accountable management performance against consistent Key Performance Indicators and within minimum international standards; and (3) more modern, efficient, and reliable operational systems in GPL.

Under PUUP, GPL was to rehabilitate approximately 830 kilometres of GPL’s distribution network, the release stated.

The new IDB/EU financing came just as GPL was about to complete a US$40M programme funded by China for the transmission and distribution system which saw new sub stations being built.

Under the MOU that was signed, GPL was to develop and expand its transmission and distribution system with the construction of 110 km of single circuit 69 KV overhead transmission lines, and approximately 1.8 km of 69 kV submarine cable; seven new 69/13.8 KV sub-stations; the expansion and upgrading of two existing 69/13.8 KV sub-stations; and installation of a fibre optic network and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system for tele-metering and protection.

Ten years later, it is hard to discern significant positive change in GPL’s performance. It has lurched from one peak demand crisis to another while experiencing numerous shutdowns of the Demerara-Berbice Interconnected System even though consumers had been told for many years now that SCADA would enable isolation of problems and prevent the entire network from going down.

The most definitive evidence of the poor results was the Public Utilities Commission’s (PUC)  annual examination of GPL’s performance. In its order of April 29 of this year it pronounced on GPL’s performance in 2023 and signalled  “its concern that GPL has failed to meet most of its operating standards and performance targets for the period under review. Particularly disconcerting is the failure to meet the customer interruptions standard. Whilst the Commission acknowledges the reasons provided by the Company for this failure, it strongly recommends that the Company reexamines its planning and forecasting methods. It is worthy of note that although the Company’s system losses increased minimally by 0.19% from 24.92% in 2022 to 25.11%  in 2023, this translates to a significant financial loss”.

The PUC urged the Company to carry out an urgent reassessment of the system losses programmes. This after huge loans and credits from the IDB and China a decade earlier.

In relation to the System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI),  for the year 2023 the target was set at 90 outages. GPL during its presentation informed the PUC that the average number of outages experienced by consumers in the year 2023 was 96.

In relation to the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), for “… the year 2023, the target set was 95 hours, however, the average duration of outages experienced by consumers during the year was 103 hours. Both targets under customer interruptions were therefore not met. The Company in its presentation indicated that its failure to attain the targets set for SAIFI and SAIDI was as a result of feeder trips, transmission line trips, planned maintenance and the shortfall in generation which the Company experienced in the latter part of 2023”, the PUC said in its order.

This is the shaky condition of GPL in which this PPP/C government plans to inject hundreds of megawatts of power derived from this hugely expensive gas to energy project which has experienced delays and is now the subject of an arbitration claim involving the contractor and the Government. There are good grounds to be very concerned about the way ahead in the power sector.