When he announced on October 10th in an address to Parliament that the government had decided on a one-off payment of $200,000 “instantaneously” to each household in the country, President Ali gave no inkling of his thought process or that of the government in what would have amounted to a whopping $60 billion dollars or more expenditure. Maybe at some juncture the President will explain to the public whether this was something he plucked out of thin air during his heady address to Parliament or it had been examined at Freedom House and passed on to Cabinet for consideration and distillation or perhaps Mr Ali had had discussions with select members of his government before deciding on the announcement.
Six days later there was a volte-face. No longer $200,000 per household, Mr Ali said a better deal had been decided. Each person 18 years or older as of 1st January 2024 will receive $100,000. He then provided reasons for the drastic change. Feedback had been received by him and his ministers. Members of the public were concerned about frictions in the family, how many people in a building could be considered as heads of households, young people without families felt left out and there was now a rush to transfer utility bill payments from one person to the next in a bid to establish eligibility.
There were of course many other reasons why the proposal was not sound including foreigner-led households and those of the oil men collecting $200,000 of what really belonged to Guyanese. The point is that the slightest examination of the $200,000 proposal would have immediately revealed incurable flaws. It certainly required no presentation to a fawning Parliament followed by engagements with members of the public. All of this leads a reasonable person to believe the announcement was not carefully examined but was delivered impulsively.
On October 16 in a Facebook address when he reeled back in the $200,000 proposal, the President provided some insight into the reasoning behind the change.
He said that he had instructed that the measure be re-examined though he did not venture to say who had done the re-examination. He cited six facets of the new decision: reducing the burden of administering the grant, simplifying the procedures for accessing the grant, improving the ease of verification, minimizing any potential conflict that might arise within the family or community, verifiable and transparent delivery of the benefit and expansion of the benefit.
The situation has not gotten better save for the so far undisclosed number of persons in Region Nine who actually received a cheque last week. That exercise was characterised by waiting and disorderly distribution. Meanwhile, registration is continuing and around 300,000 cheques are targeted to be handed out before the end of the year.
This is a massive exercise with yet undefined administrative expenses including transport, advertising, security, cost of the cheques, rental or conversion of the use of buildings, purchasing or commandeering of tablets etc. Had the proposal being carefully worked through and costed it may or may not have been proceeded with or some other means found to distribute the sum.
Members of the public will also have noted other issues that raise questions. The President’s clear intention was for the payout to be made immediately. That was just not feasible. It will take months before all adults receive their cheques. Those who don’t receive the cash grant before the end of December may now have to wait until the 2025 budget is passed as it would not be justifiable to appropriate this sum before then. Once the budget is passed it may then take some months before the remainder receives the grant.
The President was emphatic that this is a one-off payment but there have been intimations from Vice-President Jagdeo that the laborious registration process underway is to enable the efficient repeat of the payment if another cash grant is announced. If there is the intention to make another payment next year there should be some policy paper presented to parliament to underpin it.
The words “tax free” have not been mentioned. Are those who scrupulously do their tax returns expected to record the cash grant this month as income on which tax is payable for 2023? Who will clarify this lest the GRA start cracking down on the defaulters?
It was recently made known by Vice-President Jagdeo that five regions are being concentrated on for the initial payments: 4, 1, 7, 8 and 9. Who made this decision and on what basis?
There is also the troubling issue of the data being gathered by the government: ID/passport numbers, an image of the registrant plus a number the person can be contacted on. What guarantee is there that this data won’t be abused or handed over to some consulting firm for elections purposes? There has been no assurance in that area.
What is the impact on inflation and the economy of as much as $30b flowing into goods and services in a couple of months not to mention the additional monies that may soon be available for the expected wage increase to public servants?
President Ali would well understand why there are concerns about how his decisions are being made when account is taken of all the missteps. The provision of a $100,000 cash grant to roughly 600,000 people is akin to a general election-like event. It requires clear objectives and detailed planning. These are thus far absent from a process that is only just getting started.
