HOUSTON, (Reuters) – Exxon Mobil XOM.N today said its annual project spending will rise to between US$28 billion and US$33 billion between 2026 and 2030, with a goal of lifting oil and gas output by 18%.
The top U.S. oil producer laid out a five-year plan to expand output and increase earnings by 2030 by US$20 billion over this year, and use the earnings to drive shareholder returns.
The new targets come as Exxon is riding high. Its Guyana operations are generating huge profits and U.S. shale business is on track to double oil production this year through its acquisition of U.S. shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources.
CEO Darren Woods said the increased project spending is expected “to generate returns of more than 30% over the life of the investments.” Exxon’s focus on producing oil and gas from low-cost fields offers it a “competitive advantage we think is unique in the industry,” he said in a media briefing.
Exxon shares were down more than US$1 in early trading to US$111.64 with many of the projects and targets already known. The higher spending also took analysts by surprise. Its prior capital spending excluding Pioneer-related outlays called for US$22 billion to $27 billion a year through 2027.
“Production plans and the outlook for earnings look broadly in line” with expectations, wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria. “The market may remain skeptical around the earnings potential until we see further evidence of delivery.”
The company’s cost reduction target was increased to US$18 billion by 2030, said CFO Kathryn Mikells, up from the earlier US$15 billion target by 2027. Exxon’s strong balance sheet, with US$27 billion in cash and equivalents, “provides a buffer against price volatility,” said Mikells.
Exxon aims to more than triple its production in the Permian, the top U.S. shale field, to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 and pump 1.3 million bpd from its lucrative Guyana operations.
Overall oil and gas output should hit 5.4 million bpd, up about 18% from 4.58 million bpd currently. Its long-range target is more aggressive than shown by U.S. rival Chevron, which plans to reduce next year’s project spending and slow shale production growth.
President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to encourage U.S. oil production and “get out of the way of the industry” bodes well for Exxon and energy producers, Woods said. However, its plans can be revised based on market conditions, he said.
Exxon announced two new projects for Guyana by 2030, in line with a previous statement of seven to 10 total. Its LNG production target remains unchanged at 40 million metric tons per annum.
In its U.S. shale operations, Exxon expects to achieve US$3 billion in cost-savings from combining its and Pioneer Natural Resources’ shale operations. Drilling engineers at Exxon’s headquarters remotely control the combined 35 drilling rigs operating in the Permian basin, said Vice Chairman Neil Chapman.
Improved economies of scale in drilling, water disposal and longer wells also have reduced the number of wells drilled while increasing the amount of oil recovered from each by 20%. Exxon also is using a new fracking material supplied by its refineries to drain oil and gas from shale wells, said Chapman.
The new targets aim to assure shareholders that returns can be sustained through oil market price swings. Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 is expected to drop to about US$75 per barrel next year from US$81 this year, squeezing oil company profits.
But Exxon’s 12.7% year-to-date share gain is well above the sector’s about 8.4% appreciation as measured by energy mutual fund XLE. Its share-price increase contrasts with double-digit percentage declines in shares in ConocoPhillips COP.N and Occidental Petroleum OXY.N this year.
The company is investing in its carbon capture and sequestration operations around the world. It now collects 7 million tons of carbon annually, earning with “very solid returns” from the business.
Earnings from its Low Carbon Solutions business can increase by US$2 billion by 2030 compared to this year. Exxon has not broken out the unit’s 2024 profit.
The acquisition of Denbury provided a carbon pipeline network that Exxon is using to develop its business helping industry reduce atmospheric emissions of climate-warming carbon dioxide.
Exxon will hold off on approving a massive hydrogen project in Texas pending revisions to U.S. incentives for such projects, Woods reiterated. The administration of President Joe Biden set regulations to restrict incentives for hydrogen made from natural gas, a position Exxon opposes.
“How far we choose to go to invest will depend on the policies put in place,” he said.
Cash not invested in the lower carbon businesses can be invested elsewhere, he said. Exxon is considering providing lower carbon energy for data center operators seeking to boost access to electric power.