(Trinidad Express) With three more homicides recorded between Friday night and yesterday, the murder toll for 2024 currently stands at 599.
The latest victims are Kishon Hayghew, 23, a soldier who was shot dead along Bypass Road in Arima on Saturday morning; Jeremiah Rogers, 17, who was fatally shot along Picton Street in Woodbrook on Friday night; and Wendell Simmons, 42, who was shot dead outside a roti shop in Claxton Bay on Friday night.
With just over a week left in December, senior law enforcement sources told the Express yesterday they believe this year’s murder toll will more than likely surpass the country’s historic high of 605 killings in 2022.
In 2023, 577 murders were recorded.
This is now the third highest toll in the country’s history, given 2024’s count so far.
As of last night, there had been 599 murders for the year, compared with 555 for the same period in 2023.
In 2022, criminologist Dr Randy Seepersad predicted that the annual murder toll could climb to a whopping 710 by 2030, if action is not taken to deal with societal issues and other causes of crime in the country.
The forecast, called the ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average) Model, is based on trend analysis and computer model projections by Seepersad.
It also utilises statistics from the TTPS Crime and Problem Analysis Branch (CAPA) from 1990 to 2019.
Seepersad, co-ordinator of the Criminology Unit at The University of the West Indies, noted that in his research, he was able to utilise trend analysis and computer modelling to predict crime rates for the country which showed that crime was on the increase.
For this year, the ARIMA Model has a forecast of 616 murders.
And given recent crime rates, law enforcement officers believe this year’s murder toll may reach near this number.
The upper-class limit of this model says that this country may see up to 847 murders reported, with the lower-class limits giving a figure of 386 murders.
Speaking with the Express by phone yesterday, Seepersad suggested that there ought to be an immediate focus by the T&T Police Service to improve its detection rates.
This will bring a short-term goal in the reduction of homicides, he argued.
However, he noted that long-term efforts, such as community-centred initiatives, were vital in reducing homicides in this country permanently.
“In some countries, you find that the detection rates are very, very high, like, in the United States. Because of this, people are more unwilling to commit crimes because they know there’s a real chance that they will be caught. So, what we need to do is take a very deep look at what is working. In bringing our ability to detect crimes effectively, we can reduce our serious crime rates. We can do this by consulting with foreign police departments that have high detection rates. Looking at the technologies that they use, the strategies that they use, the kinds of skills that they have, etc… to try to identify areas of our bottlenecks, as they are. You know the sad thing is that these same bottlenecks have been there for a long time and I would go as far as saying, it’s not so much of, we don’t even know what to do…it’s at the point where we are simply not doing what needs to be done,” Seepersad said.
Criminologist Keron King said he believes it is time this country establishes a multi-agency, multi-stakeholder Safe Communities Council.
This council would be responsible for violence reduction initiatives and subsequently reporting on its success to the nation via the Parliament, he suggested yesterday.
He said this council must define the problem using available data, and come up with a safe community plan which ought to be published with measurable outcomes.
“I’ve seen something similar work in Dallas (Texas, USA) regarding their homicide rate. Dallas had a jump in their homicide rate in 2019. They too adopted this approach and witnessed a 30% reduction in violent crime. Violent crime can be reduced but you must adopt a rigorous evidence-based approach,” King stated.
‘Bold leadership’ needed
Security consultant Garvin Heerah also made suggestions to address the escalating murder toll.
“As Trinidad and Tobago approaches a harrowing milestone of 600 murders in 2024, there is a real chance that it may surpass 2022’s record high of 605, so we are compelled to confront the gravity of our situation. The escalating murder rate reflects an urgent need for decisive, co-ordinated, and intelligence-driven interventions to stem the tide of violence and restore public safety…This moment calls for bold leadership and unwavering commitment. We cannot afford fragmented approaches or delayed action. Instead, a cohesive and sustained national effort is required to dismantle the machinery of violence that holds our nation hostage. The path to safety lies in intelligence-led operations, proactive policing, and a resolute focus on eliminating the sources of crime. The time to act decisively is now. Let us not only address the symptoms but eradicate the disease at its core, ensuring a safer and more secure Trinidad and Tobago for generations to come,” Heerah told the Express yesterday in response to questions about the murder toll.