(Trinidad Guardian) Regional security consultant Garvin Heerah believes that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and tourism arrivals to T&T could be negatively affected given the bad press that T&T has received in recent days, since Monday’s announcement of the State of Emergency (SoE) to deal with T&T’s spiralling crime rate.
The United States, United Kingdom (UK), and Canada are among countries that have issued travel advisories to their citizens after the declaration of the State of Emergency in T&T.
In its advisory dated December 31, 2024, the US Embassy said American citizens in this country should expect an increased police and military presence.
On the Gov.UK website, the government of the UK advised its citizens that during the State of Emergency in T&T, security forces can search people and property without a warrant, arrest and detain without a warrant. The UK government also advised its citizens to expect heightened police and military presence and to always carry their ID and comply with local authorities.
Similar advice was given to Canadian citizens via the travel.gc.ca website.
The Jamaican experience of battling a high murder rate and improving its economy is a useful example of the importance of a low crime rate in attracting FDI, analysts told the Sunday Business Guardian.
The United States’ State Department’s webpage on Jamaica gives details of the work Jamaica has done in recent years to bring down the crime rate and to increase FDI.
“To sustain the reaped economic gains, the Government of Jamaica continues to take measures to improve the security situation (with one of the highest murder rates in the world) and to mitigate the risk of natural catastrophes, which remain hindrances to FDI,” the State Department’s webpage stated.
Heerah said foreign investors reading the news about T&T’s SoE, and the struggle to deal with violent crime, could potentially change their minds about investing in T&T.
“FDI is driven by investor confidence, and one of its key prerequisites is a stable and secure environment. The current narrative, amplified by the SoE, paints a picture of instability that could deter potential investors. For businesses already operating in T&T, there may be concerns about operational risks, supply chain disruptions, and employee safety. These factors could lead to a reconsideration of future investments or even divestments.”
He said domestically, the economy could suffer as a result of restricted movements, reduced commercial activities, and heightened security measures as businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are likely to feel the strain of reduced customer activity and heightened security costs.
He also spoke about the international media’s negative coverage of T&T and how this might impact tourist arrivals to T&T.
“The issuance of travel advisories by major countries such as the US, UK, and Canada, following the SoE declaration, is a clear indication that the global community is closely monitoring the situation in T&T. Travel advisories often lead to a sharp decline in tourist arrivals, particularly as potential visitors perceive the country as unsafe. This is particularly concerning given the vital role tourism plays in diversifying the economy and generating foreign exchange.”
He said additionally, the international media’s coverage of the SoE, as a response to escalating violence, further tarnishes the nation’s reputation.
“While domestic audiences may understand the necessity of the SoE, international observers may view it as evidence of systemic instability, governance challenges and a failure to address the root causes of criminality effectively.”
Despite the potential negative fall out from the SoE because of the growing instability in T&T, he said that the SoE is a necessary and immediate measure to address the alarming escalation of crime, particularly violent homicides, that has gripped the nation.
“While the intention is to restore law and order, such a decision inevitably comes with far-reaching implications, particularly in the areas of tourism FDI and the perception of national stability on the international stage.”
Herrah remains optimistic that T&T can emerge with a stronger economy and a stable social system once the right policies are carried out.
“The declaration of a State of Emergency is a stark reminder of the challenges T&T faces. However, it also presents an opportunity to demonstrate resilience and resolve. By leveraging this moment to implement decisive, transparent, and sustainable strategies, the country can emerge stronger, ensuring that the short-term measures taken now pave the way for long-term security and economic stability. T&T stands at a crossroads. The world is watching. It is now the time for bold leadership, national unity, and a commitment to rebuilding trust—locally and internationally.
Economist Dr Anthony Gonzales said the SoE could have a negative impact on FDI and visitor arrivals.
“Without doubt, an SOE will make potential visitors and investors think twice before coming to T&T. If the foreign investment is very profitable, the investor may still come after an assessment of the risks. Visitors will wait a while to see how the situation evolves. If the murder rate is seen as declining after the SOE, this could create a more favourable attitude towards the country. The overall damage to the economy will be limited by the length of the SOE and the extent to which crime is reduced during it.”