Guyana is due to hold national and regional elections this year including in Regions One, Two, Three, Seven and Eight. But Gecom, it seems, is not the only authority planning polls here; the illegitimate President of our next-door neighbour has his own scheme to hold a voting exercise in a portion of our land over which he has no jurisdiction and his nation has never had jurisdiction at any time in its history. The whole idea would be laughed off as totally absurd if it were not so unnerving, indicative as it is of a palpable intention.
Last week Mr Nicolás Maduro who was illegally sworn in as President of the nation to our west announced that in regional elections due to be held this year in Venezuela citizens would elect the heads and “legislative councils of the 24 governorships,” including that of the state of Guayana Esequiba.” And to clarify who the voters would be in the case of the last-named ‘state’, he went on to explain that this would be “the first governor elected by the vote of the people of Guayana Esequiba.” This astonishing declaration took place during a meeting with civil and military authorities.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to respond, saying in a statement that the people of Essequibo are Guyanese nationals living in Guyana’s sovereign territory, and for Venezuela to attempt to conduct an election there “would be a flagrant violation of the most fundamental principles of international law enshrined in the UN Charter …” It would also, said the Ministry, violate the commitments of the Argyle Agreement and an order of the International Court of Justice.
By this time Takuba Lodge no less than the Office of the President should be only too well aware that Mr Maduro has no respect for international law or the UN Charter, does not recognise the authority of the ICJ, and regards the Argyle Agreement as a temporary inconvenience at a time when he was under pressure. Staying in power is his primary concern, and he will not allow principle to interfere with that objective.
Mr Maduro was sworn in on Friday in the absence of street action on the part of the opposition, and in circumstances where Mr Edmundo González, the candidate who won last July’s presidential election, did not come into the country as he had undertaken to do. Ms María Machado, the power behind the opposition, had called her supporters out onto the streets on Thursday, perhaps as a test of what was possible, and while they came out in considerable numbers in some places, it was a far cry from the hundreds of thousands which were needed to confront the authorities on January 10th.
The international community including the US, the UK, Canada and Europe were quick to sanction not just Mr Maduro, but a range of officials surrounding him as well, although on its own that is unlikely to cause much panicky knocking of knees in Caracas, and it most likely was anticipated anyway. However, the Chavistas will still be faced with the issue of how they survive in office, more especially since in a matter of days hence they will have to deal with President-elect Trump in the White House.
Mr Trump is, of course, a fossil fuels man, and it was reported last year that Mr Maduro wanted to do a deal with him. The Financial Times referred to the oil and bondholder communities as urging Mr Trump to strike a lucrative deal with the Venezuelan, but its Editorial Board expressed the view that the incoming President should resist their “siren songs” and listen instead to Marco Rubio or Mike Walz. The first is due to become Secretary of State, and the second, National Security Adviser. They believe that the democratic opposition should be strengthened and sanctions against Caracas tightened.
The FT argued that assertions sanctions won’t work were flawed, since Mr Maduro feared sanctions more than anything else. The harsh measures of the first Trump administration, it said, did not come into effect until 2019 added to which European loopholes undercut them. However, this analysis is to omit a major consideration for Mr Trump, and that is immigrants. It is not that the increasing numbers who will now leave Venezuela would be admitted to the US, it is more a question perhaps of whether if he were to be put under sanctions Mr Maduro would accept Venezuelan deportees.
As far as Mr Maduro is concerned, if neighbouring countries begin to close their borders to Venezuelan migrants (Colombia has two million of them, for example), and they can no longer go to the US, he might come under greater pressure at home, a pressure which in the end repression and force might be insufficient to keep him in place. He would then be looking for a diversion, such as Essequibo.
If Miraflores does a deal with the White House, it is difficult to know just yet how Guyana will play into that. It is possible that the Trump administration will turn a blind eye to a land incursion – which is clearly what Mr Maduro has in mind – although not any maritime adventurism for obvious reasons.
A Venezuela under sanctions will have serious economic consequences, and as such Guyana’s gold deposits would be viewed as a form of at least partial salvation for Caracas. It has to be remembered that the opposition is as hardline, if not more so, on Essequibo than Mr Maduro and will hesitate to oppose, therefore, any action across the Cuyuni. As for how any ‘election’ would be held, one only has to think of flooding the Cuyuni-Mazaruni with sindicatos, and then protecting their ‘electoral’ rights with the Venezuelan military.
And then there are the Indigenous communities in the border regions which Caracas believes it can seduce to its cause, and will have plans for doing so which will precede any larger action.
Since December of 2023 we have seen a Venezuelan referendum to annexe Essequibo; satellite images from the Center for Strategic and International Studies showing a military build-up in the Cuyuni and on Ankoko; the promulgation of the ‘Organic Law for the Defence of Guayana Esequiba’; and the building of a bridge to Ankoko, among other things. Now there is the announcement of an election for governor in Venezuela’s “24th State.” What more evidence does the government need to grasp the fact that this country’s territorial integrity is in acute danger?
This might be an election year, but the administration at times of crisis has to get its priorities in order. And those priorities require that it works with the opposition and even civic groups it does not like to keep our land space intact. What it needs now is something like a small action group involving the opposition to devise a series of strategies and contacts to give Miraflores pause for thought. That group should also identify people and/or companies to devise projects which would inform the public and proselytise about our cause outside Guyana as well.
Statements from the Foreign Affairs Ministry are important and necessary, but they will not protect us. This is not the time for the government to suffer from ostrich syndrome; the country needs it to raise its head from the sand and look reality in the face.