Relations with Trump administration are likely to be marked by uncertainties and unpredictability

Dear Editor,

Thank you for that balanced editorial, `Trump and Caribbean-US relations’ (Jan 28). You are spot on in your conclusion that Guyana (and even the region) will not figure significantly in the foreign relations of Washington under newly sworn in President Trump. Relations are likely to be marked by uncertainties and unpredictability. But oil and gas production (Exxon) will figure prominently in relations with Guyana. The President will encourage American oil companies to follow Exxon’s lead and drill, baby, drill in Guyana waters.

President Trump will adhere to his “America First agenda”. Relations will be shaped by immigration, trade, security (China), and energy. The region will have to take back illegal immigrants. Relations with Washington have a major bearing on the economy and security of the region. No one will talk back to Trump.

The President is a businessman, and he would be most interested in Guyana and the region purchasing American products and services. He would want the region to minimize the Chinese presence in the region. And he would want American companies to have unimpeded access to fossil energy. Anyone who challenged his hegemony would face his wrath and rightfully so. One cannot want American protection and not be willing to cooperate with Washington.

Apart from tourism, with the exception of Guyana, the region does not have much to offer the USA. Guyana captured America’s attention because it has become a petrostate (oil) selling some 640,000 bpd and of the huge oil and gas reserves. Also, the region has some geo-strategic significance vis-à-vis China. Washington would be interested in minimizing Chinese influence in the region. On tourism, the President will not object to the construction of golf courses and affiliated resorts with the Trump name that is popular globally.

The president showed no personal interest in multilateralism in his first term, and it will be a repeat in Trump 2. He has already withdrawn from several international agencies, organizations, and treaties. He did not hold a US-Caricom engagement during Trump 1; a summit will be welcomed and will boost confidence in closer links with Washington.

It should be noted that the President has accepted the resignation of several Ambassadors posted in the region. Several new faces will be coming although probably not in Guyana since Her Excellency has been phenomenal in boosting Georgetown-Washington ties.

The President will adopt a hardline stance toward China especially that the Chinese President rebuffed him in not accepting the invitation to attend his swearing in ceremony. Countries seen as helping China may be slapped with economic measures involving tariffs and cancellation of visas. Anyone who seeks to undermine the American dollar will also face sanctions. Some naïve individuals penned that American hegemony and the dollar are dead and would be replaced by China and the Renminbi (Yuan). They better rethink.

Security arrangements may also become subject to negotiation with Guyana and CARICOM in general. There will be continued US military engagement and stepped-up defence cooperation with Guyana as it relates to the Venezuelan threat. US military engagement is still seen as necessary in Guyana and the region (drug trafficking). And US corporate investment will continue to be essential for regional and Guyana’s economic development. Without Exxon’s investment, Guyana would have remained a regular, underdeveloped backwater country without much of the services it currently enjoys.

Thus, overall, Guyana and the region will seek to improve relations with Washington. President Irfaan Ali already recognized the importance of strengthening ties with Trump by flying to Washington to meet with new Secretary of State Marco Rubio who a group of us lobbied from March 4, 2020 thru August 1, 2020 when he was Florida Senator to get then President Trump to pressure the Guyana government to respect the will of the voters in the March 2, 2020 elections.

Yours sincerely,

Vishnu Bisram