SAO PAULO, (Reuters) – Brazilian prosecutors presented a streamlined version of charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro this week over a plot to overturn his 2022 electoral loss, which could boost the chances of a final ruling before next year’s elections.
Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet divided the 34 alleged coup conspirators into five different criminal complaints “to optimize the progress of legal proceedings,” he wrote in a court filing. The complaint against Bolsonaro involves seven others.
That could mean a dramatic, televised Supreme Court trial gets underway by the middle of the year and potentially wraps up by December, said a person with knowledge of the court’s plans.
A conviction would add to obstacles keeping Bolsonaro out of the October 2026 presidential election.
Prosecutors have not publicly discussed the electoral consequences of the case, but have underscored the alleged threat to Brazil’s democracy in the last election.
Still, ruling on Bolsonaro’s case this year would require extraordinary speed from Brazil’s Supreme Court, which is overseeing the case. A criminal case that involved dozens of politicians over a decade ago took the Supreme Court six years from the moment charges were presented until a final ruling.
“While it is not impossible, no definitive timeline can be guaranteed,” said former Supreme Court Justice Marco Aurelio Mello. “The court must prioritize proper procedures and rights of the defendants.”
A panel of five Supreme Court justices is expected to decide as early as April whether it will hear the charges, said the source familiar with their thinking.
Some legal experts remain skeptical about a verdict this year.
Raquel Scalcon, a criminal law professor at the FGV law school in Sao Paulo, said the justices will be under pressure to move at the right pace.
Any appearance of speeding up proceedings to influence the 2026 election could prompt questions about their impartiality, she said. But, she added, given the importance of the case, the court will also be criticized if it moves too slowly.
A 2017 study from the FGV law school shows that, on average, it took the court almost four years to conclude cases involving politicians with special standing, once they accepted charges.
However, recent rulings, such as the conviction of Bolsonaro supporters who vandalized government buildings after the 2022 election, show the court is able to move quickly when motivated, said Ivar Hartmann, a law professor at Insper in Sao Paulo.
“This could mean that they accept the charges in two months, and open the penal case and rule on it by the end of the year,” Hartmann said of the judges.
Bolsonaro’s lawyers, who have denied he provided any support for an alleged coup, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. His attorney Celso Vilardi told TV channel GloboNews that, based on early signals from the Supreme Court, “it seems they want to do something rather quickly.”
