Dear Editor,
Following a meeting in Jamaica with several Caricom leaders on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be arriving in Guyana for discussions with President Irfaan Ali. Caricom is a strategic partner of the US with intersecting interests in migration, trade, transnational crime, relations with Venezuela, Cuba and China. The Jamaican meeting will address overall Caricom relations with the US, with Barbados’ Mia Mottley representing the regional grouping as its chair and T&T’s new PM Stuart Young as its security head. Haiti’s President will also be present to spearhead discussions on the deteriorating security situation in that island.
For us, however, our increasing oil production by the ExxonMobil condominium that will soon reach 1 million bpd, is alone significant to warrant Rubio’s visit. ExxonMobil is a significant American corporation and a week after President Trump’s inauguration and Rubio’s cabinet appointment, he held a telephone conversation with President Ali. According to the US statement, “The Secretary affirmed the United States’ steadfast support of Guyana’s territorial integrity in the face of Nicolás Maduro and his cronies’ bellicose actions.” Those actions moved from threats and bluster to physical action when on March 1, a Venezuelan naval ship invaded our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and threatened one of ExxonMobil’s FPSOs.
Following President Ali’s announcement that Guyana had “put its international partners on alert,” the Rubioled US State Dept’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs warned: “Venezuelan naval vessels threatening ExxonMobil’s floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit is unacceptable and a clear violation of Guyana’s internationally recognized maritime territory. Further provocation will result in consequences for the Maduro regime.” At the meeting with Secretary Rubio, the nature of these “consequences” must be concretized.
Maduro’s continued bellicosity, even in the face of the Dec 14 2023 Argyle Agreement on which President Ali expended much political capital, made a mockery of the commitment to “not threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances.” Even though he has recently asked for another face-to-face meeting with President Ali, the latter announced that “We are not going to go into any discussion with Venezuela when they are blatantly disregarding the Argyle (declaration).” Maduro will not cease his depredations since he clearly considers these “rally round the flag” moves as vital to his political survival, in a country he has ruined. The next flashpoint will come on May 25, one day before our independence anniversary, when Maduro has scheduled the “election” of a Governor of Essequibo, which he has legislatively “annexed” as Venezuela’s 24th state.
Maduro has explicitly rejected the ICJ’s jurisdiction to pronounce definitively on the Venezuelan concocted Border Controversy as per the 1966 Geneva Agreement. So while we have once again resorted to that body on Maduro’s latest outrageous proposal, we must take other measures to safeguard our national security. Addressing attendees at the commissioning of the GDF’s hangar at EFCIA President Ali declared: “Even as we repose our confidence in the rule of international law and in the persuasiveness of diplomacy, we are not blind to the realities of the world we live in. A strong nation must have the means to deter and to identify threats. That is why we are investing in our Defence Force, not for war, not for aggression, but for protection, for development, and for national security.”
We have long supported examining our military options but because of the overwhelming size of the Venezuelan land, air and sea forces, suggested that while we should maintain our present conventional forces, simply enlarging them to counter Venezuela is not an optimal option. We should go outside the box to cause them to think twice before attacking us. In a phrase, we must reformulate our military doctrine and force structure. Our strategy must be one of denial and cost imposition – with the limited aim of changing Venezuela’s decision-making calculus and thus their strategic behaviour. Our Essequibo jungle terrain favours this denial strategy with irregular forces and cyber equipment since unlike Venezuela, our goal is not to occupy their territory.
At the meeting with Secretary Rubio, we should raise our previous proposal that we establish a military base in Essequibo to which the US SouthCom forces would have access, through a defence treaty between our countries. The base would coordinate the special forces capable of waging the asymmetrical war against the Venezuelan forces. US SFAB units have already begun training our forces in Large Scale Combat Operations in new domains.
Sincerely,
Ravi Dev
