By Dr Bertrand Ramcharan
Seventh Chancellor of the University of Guyana Former Director in the UN Political Department.
A hundred years ago plus ten, British and other European strategists understood that a war was coming between Britain and Germany. Neville Chamberlain, at Munich in 1938, bought some time to facilitate British rearmament before war actually broke out.
Gladwyn Jebb, later Lord Gladwyn, a young member of the British Foreign Office, was closely involved in penning British strategic assessments on the coming war, and, as the war was coming to a close, he was centrally involved in British planning for the post-war order. He related this in a stunning and widely praised book published in 1972, The Memoirs of Lord Gladwyn.
British planners at the time, while supporting the USA in efforts for the creation of a world organization to succeed the League of Nations, recognized that there would be American, Chinese, and Russian spheres of interest in the post-World War II order. Winston Churchill, in particular, aspired to what might be termed a Western European sphere of interest. He was very keen on the establishment of a Council of Europe – which was eventually established, not as a security organization but as an organization devoted to the promotion of European values, notably democracy, the rule of law, and human rights.
In the 1930s practically all of Africa was under foreign domination and the establishment of an African sphere of interest was not on peoples’ minds. It is a different story in 2025 with Africa destined to become a collective major power in its own right during the twenty-first century.
One can say that the Trump Adminis-tration has brought the world back to the strategic thinking of the 1930s and 1940s: a world of great powers with their spheres of influence – in which the leading power of its area dominates. Thus: American domination in the Western hemisphere; Russian domination in its near-abroad; Chinese domination in its near-abroad; possibly Indian domination in its near-abroad; and perhaps European Union domination its region – if it can organize itself into a cohesive bloc with enough defensive assets for its self-protection.
What is left to conjecture in this scenario is whether America and China are destined to fight each other. One hopes not. Henry Kissinger, in his book on China, thought that war between the two powers could be headed off. Let us hope so.
If one studies the evolution of the African Union and its strategic planning, one can foresee an African sphere of influence managed by the African Union and its Peace and Security Council. Africa’s population and resources will be among the highest in the world in the twenty-first century and Africa, collectively, is destined for great power status.
All of this brings us to the triangular relationship involving America, Guyana and Venezuela. The US Secretary of -State, H.E. Marco Rubio, will be visiting Guyana today. And, incidentally, the US Vice-President, J.D. Vance, and his wife will be visiting Greenland this week as part of a strategy of American consolidation of its dominance of the entire Western hemisphere, from North to South. American power is on display in the western hemisphere.
What considerations should one have in mind when thinking of the triangular relationship, America, Guyana and Venezuela? First, as the hegemon of the western hemisphere, America will want to be in control of both Venezuela and Guyana. That is inside the power logic of a Great Power’s control of its area of influence.
Second, Venezuela has the largest energy reserves in the world and the USA will be ever mindful of this. Guyana also has extensive energy reserves, but not on the same scale as Venezuela. Guyana, in particular, will need to factor this into its strategic thinking when it considers how America will calibrate its own interests in this triangular relationship. America will certainly be mindful of the need to protect the energy reserves of both Venezuela and Guyana.
Third, Venezuela has what the US considers a rogue government that rules by fraudulent elections and brute force. America is applying pressure on Venezuela to return to democratic rule, so far without success. Enter into this picture support for Venezuela from China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Stated simply, America may not be able, with all its power, to use force in bringing Venezuela to heel.
Fourth, President Maduro, from his perch, has created within the Venezuelan political order a nominal state of Guyana-Esequiba; is flexing his military muscle to threaten Guyana; and will have ‘elections’ on 25 May to choose a ‘governor’ for Guyana-Esequiba. In power terms, Maduro clearly has the advantage over Guyana.
Fifth, one sees suggestions in the Guyanese media that, if need be, America – and possibly Britain – will fight Venezuela to protect Guyana’s sovereignty. This is being put about at a time when America is pulling back its troops from foreign entanglements. Those who see American body bags being sent back from Guyana to the USA have fertile imaginations. And anyone thinking about Britain fighting for Guyana has to note the efforts being made at the present time by the British Prime Minister to energise a process of strengthening the military capacity of the Western Europe.
Sixth, enter into this scenario, President Trump’s announcement this week that any country purchasing Venezuelan oil will be subjected to an additional tariff of 25 per cent on all its trade with the USA. According to the Financial Times of 25 March, 2025, Venezuela exported 660,000 barrels of crude a day globally in 2024 to China, India, Spain, and Italy. Venezuela also exported 230,000 barrels a day to the USA last year – making Venezuela the fourth largest supplier of oil to the USA. This month, the US Treasury cancelled Chevron’s licence to operate in Venezuela, ordering the US group to wind down within 30 days but, on 24 March the Treasury extended the deadline to 27 May, 2025. America is carefully calibrating its interests in Venezuela.
Seventh, against this background, the Stabroek News reported on 25 March that according to US Special Envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone, “The security of Guyana is a key priority for us in the same way that we have been working with countries in the Gulf states to ensure the security cooperation from the regional threats there, Iran, et cetera. We want to work with Guyana in order to ensure the security cooperation there and its guarantees on its security”.
This is a very nuanced statement: security for drilling rigs, certainly. Fighting for Guyana’s Essequibo region? That is indeed another matter. Whoever owns Essequibo, America can still have the oil and gas.
America has delicate balances to strike in its triangular relationship with Guyana and Venezuela. Guyana has crucial choices to make in pursuing a course to defend its sovereignty. And for Maduro, a power-play would be in his personal interest and that of his political party.
A Guyanese political realist contemplating Maduro’s options is bound to shudder. This is a high-stakes game of power politics. As Guyanese would say, “any game can play.”
