During the first quarter of this year, [Q1, 2025], I have sought to situate Guyana’s oil and gas sector in two general contexts in order to enrich our insight into its underlying dynamics. The first such context that I considered was the raft of global trends/megatrends shaping frontier offshore deep-water upstream petroleum production. And, the second context, which I had considered was this year’s National Budget 2025.
For today’s column I have invoked newly elected President Trump’s recently announced, New US Energy Policy as a third context. In essence this choice is based on two considerations. One is the enormous weight and leverage of the USA as an oil producer, globally. And the second is the inherently disruptive intentions driving the Trump Administration’s energy policy.
USA crude oil weight
Judging from interactions I have had, arising out of these Sunday columns, most non-specialist readers appear to be somewhat ill-informed about the leading components and configuration of the US petroleum sector, beyond perhaps being aware that it is huge. It is not my intention here to fill this information gap. My singular aim is to give a few indicators of the humongous size and global significance of US crude oil output.
As the US EIA has recently reported, 2024, after peaking its annual output at 9.6 million barrels per day, b/d, in 1970, annual US. crude oil output plateaued and then generally declined for decades to a low of just 5.0 million b/d in 2008. Crude oil production in the US began increasing again in 2009, as producers increasingly applied new techniques, and has increased steadily since. The only exception to U.S. production growth since 2009 was in 2020 and 2021, when demand and prices decreased because of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Last year, US output was 13.4 million barrels per day b/d. This was not only the world’s largest national output (83.1 million barrels per day) but it was also 2.5 million barrels more than second place Saudi Arabia.
I note here that much of the new in President Trump’s energy policy appears to lie in the sheer brashness that so far has accompanied each policy comment or pronouncement he makes. Thus, he refers to the overturning or ending of Biden’s policies of climate extremism. Next week I’ll return to this consideration.
For now, by climate extremism he was referring, I presume, to the circumstance commonly represented as follows.
Since the Biden Administration took office we’ve seen a growing radical flank, which is the people who are engaging in more confrontational and radical tactics around climate change [Vox, 2023.]
When this pronouncement is examined closely, one notes that President Biden, enigmatically held the amazing record for annual growth in American oil output.
Thus, between 2018 and 2021 the US was the world’s leading producer of crude oil. And, between 2021 and 2024, each year’s crude oil output consistently increased.
The contradiction between President Biden’s crude oil policy stances and his record is truly striking, and indeed for many perhaps quite shameful.
President Trump’s new energy policy
President Trump, by the authority vested in him as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, has made numerous related orders. Due to space limitations, today’s column cannot cover the totality of all the orders. I have made a selection, from Section1 [background] and Section 2 [policy].
Further details on policy and analysis will follow next week.
Section 1. Background.
America is blessed with an abundance of energy and natural resources that have historically powered our Nation’s economic prosperity. In recent years, burdensome and ideologically motivated regulations have impeded the development of these resources, limited the generation of reliable and affordable electricity, reduced job creation, and inflicted high energy costs upon our citizens. These high energy costs devastate American consumers by driving up the cost of transportation, heating, utilities, farming, and manufacturing, while weakening our national security.
It is thus in the national interest to unleash America’s affordable and reliable energy and natural resources. This will restore American prosperity —- including for those men and women who have been forgotten by our economy in recent years. It will also rebuild our Nation’s economic and military security, which will deliver peace through strength.
Section 2. Policy
It is the policy of the United States:
(a) to encourage energy exploration and production on Federal lands and waters, including on the Outer Continental Shelf, in order to meet the needs of our citizens and solidify the United States as a global energy leader long into the future;
(b) to establish our position as the leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals, including rare earth minerals, which will create jobs and prosperity at home, strengthen supply chains for the United States and its allies, and reduce the global influence of malign and adversarial states;
(c) to protect the United States’s economic and national security and military preparedness by ensuring that an abundant supply of reliable energy is readily accessible in every State and territory of the Nation;
(d) to ensure that all regulatory requirements related to energy are grounded in clearly applicable law;
(e) to eliminate the “electric vehicle (EV) mandate” and promote true consumer choice, which is essential for economic growth and innovation, by removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access; by ensuring a level regulatory playing field for consumer choice in vehicles; by terminating, where appropriate, state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles; and by considering the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other technologies and effectively mandate their purchase by individuals, private businesses, and government entities alike by rendering other types of vehicles unaffordable;
(f) to safeguard the American people’s freedom to choose from a variety of goods and appliances, including but not limited to lightbulbs, dishwashers, washing machines, gas stoves, water heaters, toilets, and shower heads, and to promote market competition and innovation within the manufacturing and appliance industries;
(g) to ensure that the global effects of a rule, regulation, or action shall, whenever evaluated, be reported separately from its domestic costs and benefits, in order to promote sound regulatory decision making and prioritize the interests of the American people;
(h) to guarantee that all executive departments and agencies (agencies) provide opportunity for public comment and rigorous, peer-reviewed scientific analysis; and
(i) to ensure that no Federal funding be employed in a manner contrary to the principles outlined in this section, unless required by law.
Conclusion
In next week’s column I will complete my presentation on this selection of the Presidential orders and then wrap-up this discussion.
