Dr Clive Thomas

Introduction This week’s column considers Guidepost 5 in Guyana’s Road Map for its petroleum sector in the dimension: “getting petroleum resources.”

Introduction Today’s column summarily considers the two remaining existential threats to Guyana’s coming petroleum sector, which I have identified for the Road Map; namely: 1) a cataclysmic environmental event occasioned by petroleum extraction, and 2) the geo-strategic spillover from domestic political strife/conflict.

Introduction Empirical observations, research and analysis, along with widely recorded historical experiences reveal that, beyond doubt, Guyana’s coming time of oil and gas production and their export will be fraught with severe risks.

Introduction Today’s column wraps up my consideration of a ballpark or indicative crude oil price that I project to prevail around the late 2020s.

Introduction Thus far, I have considered two of the six Guideposts in my depiction of a Road Map for the Government of Guyana (GoG) “getting its petroleum revenues” dimension.

Introduction Last week I addressed two of the four lines of justification, which I advance in support of my bullish prediction of 13 to 15 billion barrels for Guyana’s oil reserves.

Introduction Today’s column presents my justification for the “bullish estimate of 13 to 15 billion barrels of high quality oil as Guyana’s reserves potential.”

Introduction Last week’s column indicated that, based on three published estimates of Guyana Government Take, the Strategic Road Map is premised on the country receiving the average of these estimates – 55 percent.

Introduction Last week’s column offered a summary outline of my Strategic Road Map for “getting and spending” Guyana’s anticipated petroleum revenues.

Introduction Today’s column commences my first systematic delineation of a Strategic Road Map for getting and spending Guyana’s expected Government Take from the petroleum sector.

Introduction Today’s column concludes my discussion of fiscal stabilization clauses (FSCs) in Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs).

Introduction As promised, today’s column addresses the final topic in the now long running series (started September 2016) on Guyana’s coming petroleum sector, namely, its fiscal stabilization clause.

Introduction: Pillars Today’s discussion concludes my evaluation of the tenth and final topic on the list of “top-10 development challenges”, which Guyana will face, as it starts to receive its petroleum revenues next year.

 Introduction and Definition Today’s column develops further the discussion of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code.

Introduction Today’s column continues the discussion of the tenth (and final) item on my list of “top-10 development challenges”, which as I have indicated, Guyana will face when spending Government Take from its coming petroleum sector.

Introduction In last week’s column, I had indicated that there were two proposals, which I wished to offer on the tenth topic on my list of “top-10 development challenges.”

Introduction Today’s column starts consideration of the final topic (number 10) on my list of the top 10 development challenges, which I anticipate that spending Government’s Take from its coming petroleum sector, scheduled to be on-stream in early 2020, will have to confront in the coming years.

Introduction Last week’s column dealt with a few of the more theoretical aspects of the role that “public expectations” play in general economic growth theory and the modelling of natural resources policy management.

Introduction A number of readers have indicated to me I should have placed much more emphasis on the great extent to which the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) fiscal rule for natural resources revenue management,no longer finds favour, even among its most ardent initial supporters.

Introduction This week’s column addresses the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) fiscal rule as applied to Natural Resources Funds (NRFs).