Dr Clive Thomas

Introduction Last week’s discussion on sugar in the economy focused on those long-run performance indicators, which would aid an evaluation of the viability of GuySuCo.

Introduction Last week I argued the realisation of sufficient economies of scale for Guyana’s sugar industry to make it globally competitive is unlikely simply because these would not result in a substantial lowering of the long-term average cost of production at output levels of 450,000 tonnes.

Globalisation and Sugar Today’s truly fundamental defining feature of the condition of the Guyana sugar industry (and Guysuco more particularly), is that, several decades ago it became mature, and from all appearances since the 1960s, it has entered a long-run declining phase, as described in classic industrial and firm theories.

Introduction In last week’s column I presented a graph, which illustrated both the downward trend and the wide variations in sugar production for Guyana over the last half-century or so.

Indicator Perhaps the single most revealing performance indicator of the state of Guyana’s sugar industry is to be found in its annual production figures.

Introduction Communications I have received concerning last week’s column have all expressed indignation at the remarks, which were reportedly made by the European Union (EU) Ambassador when speaking about GuySuCo and the Guyana sugar industry. 

As I observed last week, with stunning condescension the European Union (EU) Ambassador, at the signing ceremony for the agreement on “EU budgetary support for Guyana’s ailing sugar industry” was reported in the press as remarking: “Sugar is the industry of the future.” 

Introduction Today I continue appraising the sugar industry (and GuySuCo) in view of the considerable European Union (EU) support and the further $4 billion transfer to GuySuCo from the National Budget 2012.

Introduction For the next few columns I shall assess the position of Guyana’s sugar industry in light of the billions of dollars the EU has committed in assistance under its Second Multi-annual Sugar Programme 2011 to 2013 (24.9 million euros or $6.5 billion) and the proposed Budget 2012 subsidy of $4 billion for the coming year.

Implementation deficits Caricom’s dilatoriness and implementation deficits (well documented by Prof Norman Girvan) have dramatized grave impediments standing in the way of forging a single market and economy. 

Introduction Starting with my column on April 1 this year, this is the twenty-first and concluding one in a series, which may be broadly described as an appraisal of the political economy of the National Budget, 2012.

Part 7 Introduction Under the miscellaneous category of economic-structural challenges and threats to macroeconomic stability over the near to medium-term, last week I considered those posed by three “crime-driven sectors,” for want of a better of label.

Part 6 Introduction The last grouping of challenges and threats to macroeconomic stability over the near to medium-term which remains to be covered, is a miscellany of items which I term economic-structural.

Part 5 Aftermath In last Sunday’s column I considered the overhang of poverty (extreme and moderate), inequality (consumption), and vulnerability as constituting challenges and threats to macroeconomic stability. 

Part 4 In this week’s column I begin consideration of the third grouping of challenges and threats facing near to medium-term macroeconomic stability in Guyana. 

Thus far in this series of columns dealing with the 2012 National Budget I have catalogued two of four challenges and/or threats to near to medium-term macroeconomic stability in Guyana, under the caption of ‘global developments.’

Part 1                                      Foreword Owing to newspaper space constraints, last week’s column was not carried in full.

Introduction In my two previous SN columns I have endeavoured to present to readers a basic, but relatively robust macroeconomic accounting framework, from which one could demonstrate how economists would seek, in principle, to account for, or decompose the slippage that has occurred in the government debt to GDP ratio for Guyana over the past five years.

Part 2 Introduction As promised last week, I shall conclude my effort to provide a basic accounting of those factors which the macroeconomic data suggest are responsible for the slippage in the government debt to GDP ratio for Guyana that has been observed since 2007.

Important next steps At this stage I alert readers to two tasks which remain to be tackled before I wrap up this discussion of the medium term macroeconomic outlook.