Dr Clive Thomas

Introduction In today’s and the next column I shall draw attention to selected policy research that has focused on evaluating the performance of oil rights public auctions over substantial periods of time.

Introduction Today’s column begins with a summary overview of the current state of affairs in regard to the proposed public oil block options in Guyana postponed from an initial mid-April due date to a new one, mid- July and them to September 12.

Introduction As indicated last week, today’s column will begin addressing 1] current estimation of Guyana’s recoverable crude oil resources 2] the fiscal metrics in the model PSA prepared for the impending public auctions of crude oil blocks; and, 3] policies linked to, or contingent upon, the public auctions of crude oil blocks.

Introduction Today’s column addresses the second topic I had identified for consideration in this ongoing evaluation of Guyana’s proposed public auctions of its crude oil blocks.

Introduction Over several immediately preceding columns I have undertaken a basic stock taking of Guyana’s petroleum sector in three of its dimensions.

Introduction Last week’s column addressed the central dilemma facing Guyana’s continued prosperity and perhaps survival as the region’s fastest emerging Petrostate.

Introduction My two previous columns had addressed taking stock of 1] the ruling resource price on offer to investors for Guyana’s oil exploration and development blocks [that is the Average Effective Tax Rate, AETR, or Government Take ratio, or share of net revenue flows yielded by the  ruling [Stabroek block, PSA] and 2] predictions of Guyana’s supply of recoverable petroleum resources expressed in barrels of oil equivalent, boe [which differs from mine at 28 to 30 million boe;], that is Exxon’s 11 plus billion boe; and the Government of Guyana’s, 24 billion boe].

Introduction Today’s column shifts the focus from taking stock of the prevailing PSA resource price on offer for the rights to extract crude oil towards estimating Guyana’s estimated recoverable oil resources.

Introduction As indicated thus far, in my long-running oil and gas series, within the short period of only three and a half years after its First Discovery in May 2015, Guyana’s First Oil began in December 2019.

Introduction Judging from the frequent feedback, which readers of this column regularly provide to me it seems they are very impressed by the exceptional speed with which Guyana has been able to move from its First Find [May 2015] to its First Oil [December 2019].

Introduction The main focus of today’s column is to wrap-up consideration of the World Bank’s Staff Conclusions reached in its Guyana SCD (Systematic Country Diagnostic), 2020.

Introduction Today’s column looks at chapters 5 and 6 of the  Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD).

Part 2 Introduction Today’s column focuses on Chapter 4 of the Guyana SCD 2020.

Introduction For readers’ benefit today’s column is devoted to providing careful reporting on the queries and policy prescriptions on offer in the first three chapters of the World Bank’s Staff Guyana SCD Report,2020.

Part 1 Introduction As revealed in this column series thus far, in early 2020, extractivist and neoextractivist-oriented interpretations of the series of prolific oil reservoirs discovered offshore Guyana have already yielded the transformative notion of Guyana as a rapidly emerging Petrostate.

Introduction Let me be clear and categoric at the very inception of today’s column.

Introduction Today’s column reports on the third concept that frames my representation of Guyana as a Petrostate, that is the role of happenstance in the nation’s world-class petroleum finds.

Introduction Last week I displayed the macroeconomic underpinnings in the claim several have made to the effect that “Guyana is the newest petrostate in the Americas”.

Introduction For the convenience of several enquiring readers, I begin today’s column with a brief recap.

Introduction Today’s column continues to elaborate on the meaning I am intending to attach to the three key concepts referred to in last week’s column; namely, extractivism, petrostate and happenstance.