Guyana and the Wider World

Introduction For the next few columns I shall assess the position of Guyana’s sugar industry in light of the billions of dollars the EU has committed in assistance under its Second Multi-annual Sugar Programme 2011 to 2013 (24.9 million euros or $6.5 billion) and the proposed Budget 2012 subsidy of $4 billion for the coming year.

Implementation deficits Caricom’s dilatoriness and implementation deficits (well documented by Prof Norman Girvan) have dramatized grave impediments standing in the way of forging a single market and economy. 

Introduction Starting with my column on April 1 this year, this is the twenty-first and concluding one in a series, which may be broadly described as an appraisal of the political economy of the National Budget, 2012.

Part 7 Introduction Under the miscellaneous category of economic-structural challenges and threats to macroeconomic stability over the near to medium-term, last week I considered those posed by three “crime-driven sectors,” for want of a better of label.

Part 6 Introduction The last grouping of challenges and threats to macroeconomic stability over the near to medium-term which remains to be covered, is a miscellany of items which I term economic-structural.

Part 5 Aftermath In last Sunday’s column I considered the overhang of poverty (extreme and moderate), inequality (consumption), and vulnerability as constituting challenges and threats to macroeconomic stability. 

Part 4 In this week’s column I begin consideration of the third grouping of challenges and threats facing near to medium-term macroeconomic stability in Guyana. 

Thus far in this series of columns dealing with the 2012 National Budget I have catalogued two of four challenges and/or threats to near to medium-term macroeconomic stability in Guyana, under the caption of ‘global developments.’

Part 1                                      Foreword Owing to newspaper space constraints, last week’s column was not carried in full.

Introduction In my two previous SN columns I have endeavoured to present to readers a basic, but relatively robust macroeconomic accounting framework, from which one could demonstrate how economists would seek, in principle, to account for, or decompose the slippage that has occurred in the government debt to GDP ratio for Guyana over the past five years.

Part 2 Introduction As promised last week, I shall conclude my effort to provide a basic accounting of those factors which the macroeconomic data suggest are responsible for the slippage in the government debt to GDP ratio for Guyana that has been observed since 2007.

Important next steps At this stage I alert readers to two tasks which remain to be tackled before I wrap up this discussion of the medium term macroeconomic outlook.

Agony and debt In last week’s column I sought to direct readers’ attention to the debt stress that is engaging our economy and the distress this portends.

The Budget 2012 reveals that despite the statistical benefit which is derived from using the rebased 2006 GDP series as the denominator (because this has led to an approximately two-thirds increase in its size) the debt stock to GDP ratio for Guyana has increased from its low of 60 per cent in both 2007 and 2008 to 70 per cent in 2011. 

As part of my continuing assessment of the 2012 National Budget I attempted two tasks in last week’s column. 

Introduction So far in assessing the challenges posed by the National Budget 2012 for the medium-term outlook and macroeconomic stability of the Guyana economy I have treated with four considerations. 

Introduction This week I shall continue my discussion of the threatening size of government spending (as a proportion of GDP) to the medium-term economic outlook and macroeconomic stability. 

Introduction The noise that surrounds the presentation and debates of annual national budgets in Guyana for decades now is legendary.

My last two Sunday columns elaborated on the proposal for a Budget Office to be established in the National Assembly (NABO). 

In last Sunday’s column I repeated the bold assertion, which I had made a year ago that a National Assembly Budget Office is “needed to restore trust in official economic data.”