Guyana and the Wider World

Introduction Last week’s column explained the enigma of, on the one hand, repeated striking downward revisions to Guyana’s expected real GDP growth for 2020 (initially set at 85% by the IMF and Government of Guyana, GoG in Q4, 2019).

Introduction As the above title suggests, today’s column indicates a substantive shift in focus away from the “infant state” of Guyana’s oil and gas sector (even though this still remains the case) towards its evolving profile in coming decades.

Introduction My long-standing recommendation to establish a National Oil Company, NOC, intentionally rejects the notion of linking this policy recommendation with the establishment of a state-owned (or joint venture, state-private) downstream “oil refinery”.

Introduction Today’s column addresses the third and final policy choice that I anticipate Guyana will have to make in this decade.

Introduction Following last week, today’s column continues to provide recommendations in regard to the  three crucial key policy choices that I identify, which will be confronting the Government of Guyana, GoG, in the coming decade.

Introduction Since Guyana’s first commercial oil discovery in 2015, I have steadfastly urged a “strongly bullish outlook” on its potential petroleum resources.

Introduction Today’s column shifts focus from determining direct impacts on oil production, price, government revenue and their consequential effects on GDP arising from the 2020 general crisis (as I have portrayed this process) on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector towards gauging impacts, going  forward, on the leading transnational producer grouping in this sector: ExxonMobil and partners. 

Introduction Table 1 shows various estimated GDP growth rates data for Guyana in 2020.

Introduction In today’s column I continue my summary appraisal of the adverse impacts of the 2020 general crisis, as I have defined this phenomenon, on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector.

Introduction In today’s column I begin my appraisal of revealed adverse impacts of the 2020 global general crisis, as I have specified this term and its footprints, on the performance of Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector last year and going forward into the future.

Introduction In today’s column I continue with the summary recap and overview of my effort to evaluate the impact of the 2020 global general crisis on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector.

Introduction At this juncture, with the coming to a close of 2020, I believe it would be helpful for readers if at this juncture I proceed to undertake a recap on where I am in this rather lengthy analysis of the impact of the 2020 global general crisis (as I have defined this process) on Guyana’s emerging oil and gas sector.

Introduction As pointed out in the conclusion of last week’s column, today’s will wrap-up my current efforts to interrogate the IDB report on Guyana’s Oil Opportunity and its estimation of likely Government of Guyana (GoG) revenues.

Introduction In the previous three columns I have been addressing the August 2020 IDB report, which estimates prospective Guyana Government Take (revenues) accruing from its one- year- old crude oil and gas sector.

Introduction As promised last week, today’s column begins with my presentation of a simple schedule depicting the sequencing of the five projects of ExxonMobil and its partners around which the IDB has modeled Guyana’s oil and gas sector to 2025 in its recent report, ‘Traversing a Slippery Slope: Guyana’s Oil Opportunity, 2020.’

Introduction Today’s column continues my selective reporting on the IDB’s Note, ‘Traversing a Slippery Slope: Guyana’s Oil Opportunity.’

Introduction To round off my evaluation of Guyana’s emergent oil and gas sector in its very first year, I shall report in coming columns on the Inter-American Development Bank’s (IDB) Technical Note, IDB-TN-1994, published August, 2020 and entitled, ‘Traversing a Slippery Slope: Guyana’s Oil Opportunity.’

Introduction Today’s column wraps-up my rather extended assessment of the impact of the 2020 general crisis (as I have previously defined this phenomenon) on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector.

Introduction As indicated last week, today’s column will continue my summing up of a few remaining concerns, which I have identified and have been evaluating in recent columns.

 Introduction Today’s column starts the wrap-up of my on-going evaluation of several remaining concerns still of great importance to Guyana’s emergent oil and gas sector, in the closing days of the “2020 general crisis,” as I have earlier defined this phenomenon.